Ukraine invasion

[Havok1]

Sure we care about it. Who do you know who doesn't care?

What we shouldn't do when we care is start stoopin' to pootin'. Thats like if someone got in an argument with their ol' lady and headed downtown to pick up a crack whore.

Most politicians and voters, to keep the response simple. Not sure I understand the point of your bottom paragraph though.

 

[pronstar]

Huh, this came out less than 2 hours after a meeting where we pleaded with China to not help Russia…what a coincidence




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[pronstar]

We shall see how ruthlessly recent sanctions will be enforced over the next week or so. So far, Russia has backed off the requirement to pay foreign denominated debts in rubles.

“The first major default since Russia invaded Ukraine and the West unleashed punishing sanctions could come as soon as Wednesday. Steel giant Severstal PAO owed a coupon payment due on a dollar bond on March 16 with a five business-day grace period, which expires Wednesday.”

Probably paywall: https://www.wsj.com/articles/oligar...ts-but-sanctions-stand-in-the-way-11647967581

I think the MSM is going a bit overboard with the severity of the sanctions. A select few Russian banks getting booted from Swift is a minor inconvenience at worst.

Putin/Russia is rumored to be sitting on $200B US dollars.

But he can pay their obligations with the dollars he got from selling oil to us just this year alone…

Edit:
$200B not $500B
Typos


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[oldag]

I think the MSM is going a bit overboard with the severity of the sanctions. A select few Russian banks getting booted from Swift is a minor inconvenience at worst.

Putin/Russia is rumored to be sitting on $200B US dollars.

But he can pay their obligations with the dollars he got from selling oil to us just this year alone…

Edit:
$200B not $500B
Typos


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Dunno.

When they start talking about default and paying dollar denominated contracts in rubles, there is some pain.

 

[toddnjoyce]

I think the MSM is going a bit overboard with the severity of the sanctions. A select few Russian banks getting booted from Swift is a minor inconvenience at worst.

Putin/Russia is rumored to be sitting on $200B US dollars.

But he can pay their obligations with the dollars he got from selling oil to us just this year alone…

Edit:
$200B not $500B
Typos


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The Journal shares your same pessimism in the full article noting Gazprom (led by a sanctioned individual, owned by the state) was allowed to make a debt payment earlier this month due to a loophole in the sanctions.

In other pieces, enough mega yachts have been seized that the remaining boats have decided to remain in international waters or Russia friendly ports since and the owner of the Chelsea soccer club put it up for sale out of fear of UK seizure. That fear is an intangible aspect of sanctions.

Finally, Bermuda cancelled the regulatory approval of several hundred airliners registered in Bermuda and operated by Russian airlines. Putin seized the airliners (90+% of Russian airline traffic is internal to Russia) in retaliation; those planes were leased beforehand so there’s a few leasing companies lining up to sue in the WTO and they will most likely win. Though a paper victory, it’ll be a cold day in hell before a leasing company ever again leases to a Russian airline; there’s no huge impact right now but sooner or later Aeroflot is going to drop from 187 Boeing/Airbus/Sukhoi jets to 10 Sukhoi. Same story across most other Russian airlines. That industry will eventually wither and die until the Russia makes it right.

 

[ian]

Dunno.

When they start talking about default and paying dollar denominated contracts in rubles, there is some pain.

Biden is giving Putin the opportunity to ween RU off the dollar. If it goes bad, putin can say it was those evil Americans. If it goes good Putin can say he made RU stronger.

 

[ian]

Most politicians and voters, to keep the response simple. Not sure I understand the point of your bottom paragraph though.

Thats ok. Its probably too complicated.

 

[ian]

I think the MSM is going a bit overboard with the severity of the sanctions. A select few Russian banks getting booted from Swift is a minor inconvenience at worst.

Putin/Russia is rumored to be sitting on $200B US dollars.

But he can pay their obligations with the dollars he got from selling oil to us just this year alone…

Edit:
$200B not $500B
Typos


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Bidens sanctions are no worse than Obamas sanctions.

Obamas sanctions made putin a lot of money.

 

[oldag]

I would add that the Russian stock market is still closed.

Grocery shortages (hoarding partially to blame).

Oil traders have been laying off Russian oil, fearing that sanctions could be imposed.

Spare parts are beginning to be a problem.

 

[toddnjoyce]

I would add that the Russian stock market is still closed.

Grocery shortages (hoarding partially to blame).

Oil traders have been laying off Russian oil, fearing that sanctions could be imposed.

Spare parts are beginning to be a problem.

MOEX is slated to reopen for limited trading tomorrow, we’ll see how well that goes.

Wait to see if EU joins US oil embargo, but expect to see third party dealing (RU sells to China, China sells to rest of world - or similar) is looked at with a blind eye.

Spares sourcing in many heavy industries is starting to look like cannibalization / grey market purchases of donor platforms to cannibalize. Those actions will be window dressing.

 

[candcallen]

I've seen pics of russian suicide drones refusing to blow up on impact.

Russian quality control as good as advertised.

 

[seeker_two]

If this is proving anything, it's that conventional land warfare is over and done. The biggest number of victories for all sides seem to be due to asymmetrical warfare supported by outside organizations, social media propagandization, and economic manipulation. Had Putin sent in a bomber/missile strike or SF teams to take out the Ukrainian government and key sites with minimal damage to Ukrainian civilians, this would already be three news cycles in the past with no Ukrainian retaliation. Cyber warfare would handle the rest. The Rus military is now in a fight that can only be resolved by withdrawal or genocide.

Hope someone in the US military is smart enough to take notes.....

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[Big Green]

If this is proving anything, it's that conventional land warfare is over and done. The biggest number of victories for all sides seem to be due to asymmetrical warfare supported by outside organizations, social media propagandization, and economic manipulation. Had Putin sent in a bomber/missile strike or SF teams to take out the Ukrainian government and key sites with minimal damage to Ukrainian civilians, this would already be three news cycles in the past with no Ukrainian retaliation. Cyber warfare would handle the rest. The Rus military is now in a fight that can only be resolved by withdrawal or genocide.

Hope someone in the US military is smart enough to take notes.....

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Hearts and Minds. They’re doing it wrong.

 

[oldag]

If this is proving anything, it's that conventional land warfare is over and done. The biggest number of victories for all sides seem to be due to asymmetrical warfare supported by outside organizations, social media propagandization, and economic manipulation. Had Putin sent in a bomber/missile strike or SF teams to take out the Ukrainian government and key sites with minimal damage to Ukrainian civilians, this would already be three news cycles in the past with no Ukrainian retaliation. Cyber warfare would handle the rest. The Rus military is now in a fight that can only be resolved by withdrawal or genocide.

Hope someone in the US military is smart enough to take notes.....

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Thought I read they attempted to send in SF teams to decapitate the government, but they failed.

 

[Havok1]

If this is proving anything, it's that conventional land warfare is over and done. The biggest number of victories for all sides seem to be due to asymmetrical warfare supported by outside organizations, social media propagandization, and economic manipulation. Had Putin sent in a bomber/missile strike or SF teams to take out the Ukrainian government and key sites with minimal damage to Ukrainian civilians, this would already be three news cycles in the past with no Ukrainian retaliation. Cyber warfare would handle the rest. The Rus military is now in a fight that can only be resolved by withdrawal or genocide.

Hope someone in the US military is smart enough to take notes.....

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i think all the dead and displaced Ukrainians, along with the dead Russians would disagree that land warfare is over and done. The concerns over Poland being invaded, and Germany boosting defense spending(although by a trivial amount) are not happening because land warfare is over and done. Social media may influence peoples opinions of the war(whether in a good or bad way is debatable) but the war is still not being fought on social media. It’s being fought on land, and in the air.

 

[Tnhawk]

i think all the dead and displaced Ukrainians, along with the dead Russians would disagree that land warfare is over and done. The concerns over Poland being invaded, and Germany boosting defense spending(although by a trivial amount) are not happening because land warfare is over and done. Social media may influence peoples opinions of the war(whether in a good or bad way is debatable) but the war is still not being fought on social media. It’s being fought on land, and in the air.

The final part of any war is fought by the soldier on the ground.

 

[pronstar]

Russia has gold and commodities. Any default due to frozen dollars hurts the creditors far more than they hurt Russia.

And it’s a paper default…if I’m in default because the bank won’t let me pay with funds I have that the bank itself has frozen, then who is being hurt more?

They’re a trading partner with China and India and others, and together they have money that lives outside the dollar, plus economies that are other than the Eurodollar.

Europe is still buying energy from them.

Russian and China have been dealing with these sanctions for over a decade.

And in that time, they along with China have been furiously been adding to their gold reserves.

While we’ve been multiplying our national debt and allowing men wearing dresses to compete against women.


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[Gilgondorin]

They’re a trading partner with China and India and others, and together they have money that lives outside the dollar, plus economies that are other than the Eurodollar.

The amount of trade they are currently able to do with China and India isn't enough to replace what they had with the US and Europe. To be sure it'll help tide them over for a bit, but the scope of the comprehensive sanctions we've put them under means even Chinese companies run the risk of being cut off if we ever find out they were trying to skirt them by supplying things to the Russians under the table.

Europe is still buying energy from them.

Not for long if Putin finishes shooting himself in the foot: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...s-to-pay-for-russian-gas-in-rubles/ar-AAVrgmx

Germany is Russia's biggest client for natural gas; they are currently paying almost twice as much for it than before the war started, because of the gigantic hike in price caused by the war. Between them and the rest of Europe, they bought more than 5 times the amount of gas China currently does. However, pipeline infrastructure to deliver said gas only currently exists in the direction of Europe -- it will take at least another 3-5 years before they can build replacement pipelines to China, and as I said before, even China won't be able to buy as much off Russia as all of Europe put together had been -- they are facing their own internal problems with 'tofu dreg' projects, and pissing off their younger generation into refusing to work to enrich corrupt Chinese businessmen.

The Germans have been on the fence about finally going ahead and thumbing the metaphorical 'nuke' button and cutting off purchasing of natural gas from Russia, because it would hurt their own economy as well as Russia's. Apparently, a team of researchers there have run the numbers and suggested it might not be quite as bad as everyone initially thought though, and could be manageable -- particularly if the US starts selling as much liquid natural gas as we could possibly spare, to help them out. Meanwhile, it would be an out and out disaster for Russia because it's their one remaining commodity they have left to sell on short notice, that they can get anything for.

If Putin tries to demand everybody prop the ruble up for him by demanding payment in rubles the way he's suggesting, the possibility -- slim though it might be -- exists that it's only going to give the German Government a very handy excuse to turn around to their people to say, 'Well, Putin has lost his mind and unilaterally reneged on our contract agreements by refusing to sell us gas unless we pay him in rubles, so, we might as well sanction it anyway since we don't have anything left to lose anymore.'

Russian and China have been dealing with these sanctions for over a decade.

And in that time, they along with China have been furiously been adding to their gold reserves.

The sanctions they've been under have been child's play compared to what Russia is currently experiencing, and looking to get even more of as time goes on and Putin doubles down on the 'terror and war crimes' strategy. It is agreed that he has been doing a significant amount of preparation, but it seems clear that he just didn't foresee the sanctions being so severe or he wouldn't be taking such steps of desperation as trying to strong-arm European countries into bailing his currency out for him, and even doing such pedantic things as authorizing Russian airlines to basically steal airliners leased from out of the country, in order to cannibalize them for spare parts to keep their own airplanes flying.

 

[Renegade]

Ukrainian Minister of Defense released this video on their official twitter page claiming that their air defenses shot down four Russian helicopters in Kherson. (it is actually a video game clip).

 

[popper]

Putin bought those companies, consolidated power and became a $200B man!
Actually most of that occurred in 90 when USSR fell. Some was thug takeover and some just regular business. Putin wants the ruble to stay up or his 'points' with Rus citizens will go way down. Sanctions hurt the economy and the people, not so much the Gov. Brandon and the Fed are doing pretty much the same to us and other than gripe, doesn't effect the Gov. much.
As to war, barrage then troops enter - normal for last 10 centuries. No change but more destructive weapons. The US fought the last wars differently as we didn't really want to win - and lost! Plain and simple.