Ukraine invasion

[TheDan]

That is correct.
Fighting militarily against putin is useless and dangerous for world stability.

We should move the battle to modern field which is financial and economic : why such countries like russia and china have had access to WTO although they don't run democracy ?

If you split the world withg such rules, you don't have to run any war anywhere, it's self organized.

Economically speaking, russia is a dwarf and china would shrink to such size if they don't have access to world free market.

We want to retaliate because we didn't had the balls to stick to basic principles. Pathetic.

As the saying goes, when goods stop crossing borders bullets will cross them. I think the rest of the world is tired of being threatened with being shut out of the western banking system and is going their own way, so I don't think sanctions are going to work going forward.

Russia already has an alternative international banking system and probably thinks they've made enough military deals to stand on their own now.

How much is France dependent on Russian gas? Supposedly for Germany it fuels 30% of their economy. If that were to get shut off either through sanctions or war it would be bad news.

 

[FrenchFriend]

If an alternative to western banking system emerge, let them go, why not ?

But exchanging goods with countries without syndicates and freedom of speech is a killer. See where we are now with China, and it's the early beginning of problems. They should not have been allowed to enter WTO, an historical mistake I never understood.

France has no dependency upon russian gas. Germany has because Merkel took deal with anti-nuclear partis to keep power, thus destroyed their energy industry. This is why Europe will NOT enter the conflict, Germany's weight 35% of Europe alone.

The very question at the moment is how to give Ukraine to Putin without appearing as a victory for him. A very small portion of educated Ukrainian people want to become European but the rest don't care and feel more russian. We should't fight for lost causes.

 

[FNORD]

I've done a lot of reading, did some work for the military, and tried to keep up with this sort of thing. Here is my understanding, though I admit there could be factual errors because this crap is so complex.

First, ancient history. As the US exited WWII with an intact economy and well positioned to be the greatest industrial power, it needed OIL (not coal) to do so. Eisenhower made a deal with the Saudi royal family to protect it (and its leadership of the Sunni Muslims) from Iran (and its leadership of the Shite Muslims) if it would keep cheap oil flowing. This is the genesis of all the "blood for oil" memes. The problem is the Saudis were a little too western (wine women and song) than the rest of the population. Sharing oil wealth helped with the ambitious, but they needed a "Islam-based" form of control for the masses. So they struck a deal with the Wahabis to run schools and health services for the people. In other words, they allowed the indoctrination of their populace with anti-US and anti-western hate in order to maintain power. This is what spawned Wahabi mujahedeen like Osama.

Now, Pre-9/11. After a few decades of extremist education, the Wahabis started to organize. When Osama took some mujas to Pakistan to remove the Soviet non-believers from Afghanistan, the US provided money and weapons (notably Stingers) to these freedom fighters, who later proved victorious. But then we left and the Northern Alliance took over, but was soon challenged by the Taliban, who were backed by Pakistan, who wanted an angry and active Sunni neighbor who would cause trouble on Iran's border. Osama used this lawless and permissive environment to activate (also with Pakistan's military intel agency support) the madrassas to train a new breed of mujahedeen to remove the American non-believers from Kuwait (this is right after the first Gulf War with Iraq) and Saudi Arabia (as well as Somalia, Yemen, and parts of Africa...these were the terrorist attacks in Blackhawk Down, the USS Cole, and the embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania...even the first failed bombing of the World Trade Center in 1993). This group became al Queda. This is the basis for the meme's about the US/CIA funding terrorists (although really we did this decades before when Osama fought the Soviets).

Post 9-11. You all know what happened in the US and then Afghanistan and Iraq. Things reallyl turned to shit when Obama pulled out of Iraq and gave the finger to our Saudi allies to make a nuclear deal with Iran. Saudi decided if the US would not protect Saudi Arabia, then it would have to work with the other angry Sunni governments to build a force of mujahedeen that would fight for the Saudis against Iran's growing influence in Iraq (al Sadr was Shite as is much of the Iraqi population), Syria, and later Yemen. They used their oil money to form what would become ISIS. Unfortunately, this group was so radical that it was difficult to control. While the Sunni's cheered the violence ISIS brought to Shites in Iraq and Syria, the US was alarmed by ISIS' grand dreams to recreate the caliphate and call the faithful for a greater jihad against the West. So one of the things the US did was arm the Yazidis in Turkey, Syria and Iraq to fight ISIS. (The Yazidis are the Iraqi's who were Sarin gassed by Saddam and eventually led to the Northern No Fly Zone after the First Gulf War). The Yazidis fought ISIS who killed their men and enslaved their women, and together with the Iran -sponsored Shite Iraqi militias (and probably some Iranian spec ops as well) found ISIS back on the ground while the US and Russia (allied with Assad in Syria--another Shite govt) bombed them from the air. So the preceding is your strange bedfellows situation. The problem is, Turkey considered the Yazidis to be terrorists because they want their own country using parts of Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, and the US in deference to Turkey has even designated some Yazidi groups terrorists. (So another US supports terrorists meme). When the US bombed ISIS, it was inadvertently helping Russia to prop up Assad, who we were originally pissed at for bombing his own people, and this bombing was in opposition to the Saudi's who funded ISIS to fight Iran, and Shite Assad in Syria.

This region is so complex that we often fail to understand the second and third order effects of what appears to be a simple decision. The US tends to think one election cycle ahead, while those in the region think like "just a few centuries ago, we owned much of Africa and Europe". I am sure the same complexities are present with Ukraine and Taiwan, but I am not as well versed in those areas.

Now that’s an analysis.

 

[seeker_two]

At the most, we should be dumping arms and aid into the other countries bordering the Rus to discourage further expansion.....especially arms that may result in large, bright BOOMs (like Poland & the Czech Republic).

But direct military support and troops are a hard pass....


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[single stack]

 

[Darkpriest667]

At the most, we should be dumping arms and aid into the other countries bordering the Rus to discourage further expansion.....especially arms that may result in large, bright BOOMs (like Poland & the Czech Republic).

But direct military support and troops are a hard pass....


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Agreed.

 

[A1Oni]

who gives a shit about what happens in ukraine, let themselves sort it out.

 

[toddnjoyce]

At the most, we should be dumping arms and aid into the other countries bordering the Rus to discourage further expansion.....especially arms that may result in large, bright BOOMs (like Poland & the Czech Republic).

But direct military support and troops are a hard pass....


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That’s pretty much what’s going on in the defense and part of the spy spaces. What the Dips and the rest of the spies are doing may or may not be coordinated or connected.

Then there’s the private space doing what they need to make money.

 

[cycleguy2300]

who gives a shit about what happens in ukraine, let themselves sort it out.

Spoken in ignorance I am sure, but when we give our word, rightly or wrongly, we should honor it.

We promised/implied/suggested we would help protect Ukraine from Russia and now it is time to fulfill our word.

That said we should be EXTREMELY careful about promises. In the future, sell them all the weapons and equipment they can buy, but we should probably not be too involved with sending our war-fighters next time.

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[A1Oni]

Spoken in ignorance I am sure, but when we give our word, rightly or wrongly, we should honor it.

We promised/implied/suggested we would help protect Ukraine from Russia and now it is time to fulfill our word.

That said we should be EXTREMELY careful about promises. In the future, sell them all the weapons and equipment they can buy, but we should probably not be too involved with sending our war-fighters next time.

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we break so called "promises" all the time in the global theater of politics, and even then a metric shitton of our tax dollars goes into european defense which in my honest opinion, should go to the american people instead, if the europeans want to murder eachother we should just let them, Ukraine is not our problem, and anything NATO says aint our problem either.

 

[Axxe55]

Spoken in ignorance I am sure, but when we give our word, rightly or wrongly, we should honor it.

We promised/implied/suggested we would help protect Ukraine from Russia and now it is time to fulfill our word.

That said we should be EXTREMELY careful about promises. In the future, sell them all the weapons and equipment they can buy, but we should probably not be too involved with sending our war-fighters next time.

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It probably exceeds the young one's mind to comprehend that when you give your word, or make a promise to someone that it is honorable to keep your word or your promise.

Probably why many of the younger generations are so screwed up. No honor or dignity with them.

 

[benenglish]

Some folks have commented on Russia's desire to plug the geographic gaps in their defenses (i.e., invasion routes) with client states. I think those folks are on the right track.

So after Ukraine, what comes next? TheDan hit it with:

This is worth a read...

Ukraine: The War After the War

As much as I grieve for Ukraine, I find the next steps are what give me nightmares. To quote the conclusion of the linked article:

The Baltic beaches and the plains of Poland are where the future of Russia and the West, of the European Union and NATO, will ultimately be decided. It is there that Russia will succeed or die. This is far worse than it sounds. Russia’s population is in free-fall. A Russian occupation of Ukraine completed to Russia’s satisfaction will still absorb most of what’s left of Russia’s conventional military capabilities, leaving only the decidedly unconventional available for the next conflict.

Russia won’t fight its Twilight War with soldiers.

Remember the traditional view of the Soviet army, from back long before the USSR broke up, on how to deploy nukes? It was, roughly:

• Keep 'em small.
• Throw 'em at the enemy infantry and armor a few miles in front of you.
• Take a vodka break.
• Advance.
• Repeat.

Combine that with the analysis above and, well, if that doesn't give you the heebie-jeebies, I don't know what will.

 

[Younggun]

we break so called "promises" all the time in the global theater of politics, and even then a metric shitton of our tax dollars goes into european defense which in my honest opinion, should go to the american people instead, if the europeans want to murder eachother we should just let them, Ukraine is not our problem, and anything NATO says aint our problem either.

To some degree I agree.


But we should also learn from history. That may support intervention or not, but in somewhat recent history it didn’t work out well for us when we stood by and let the Europeans kill each other.


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[Brojon]

But you send 190,000 troops to the Border because they are threatening to join NATO?

Seems pretty weak to me because NATO is not going to let them join anyway

Im not aware of the natural gas issues but again I can't believe Russia is willing to take hundreds if not thousands of casualties without trying to resolve this in a more visible way

Im just at a loss to understand this whole thing.

Putin commandeered Crimea and his popularity soared to 80%.
The sanctions dampened the Russian economy and it dropped a bit but still by far the Russians approve of his sorry ass.
Some cultures are just militant and they like to go around beating up folks and winning at it.
Dick waving at a whole new level.

 

[Brojon]

To some degree I agree.


But we should also learn from history. That may support intervention or not, but in somewhat recent history it didn’t work out well for us when we stood by and let the Europeans kill each other.


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You're right. We can not practice isolationism in any form.
The virtual dictatorships of Russia, China and to an extent North Korea and Iran are a threat to people across the planet.
They must be stopped assertively.
Too bad our current commander in chief nor the Joint Chiefs of Staff have no balls for armed conflict anymore.
They're part of the societal pussification efforts.

 

[A1Oni]

To some degree I agree.


But we should also learn from history. That may support intervention or not, but in somewhat recent history it didn’t work out well for us when we stood by and let the Europeans kill each other.


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speaking frankly, I don't beleive we should be the world police to further jingoistic goals of politicians and corporations that siphon the average joe's dollar into their pockets and the spillage of the average joe's blood on fruitless battles we have no right or reason to fight. historically crimea and some of the border regions of the ukraine have been russian, is it shitty that they are picking fights with their neighbors? yes? should we put our nose in their business when we already put our nose in the sandbox for 25 years only to have it bitten off? no, we should sit this one out and let them duke it out.

 

[Kar98]

You're right. We can not practice isolationism in any form.
The virtual dictatorships of Russia, China and to an extent North Korea and Iran are a threat to people across the planet.
They must be stopped assertively.
Too bad our current commander in chief nor the Joint Chiefs of Staff have no balls for armed conflict anymore.
They're part of the societal pussification efforts.

The previous CinC wasn't much better either, sucking up to Putin, Xi and Kim.

 

[Kar98]

speaking frankly, I don't beleive we should be the world police to further jingoistic goals of politicians and corporations that siphon the average joe's dollar into their pockets and the spillage of the average joe's blood on fruitless battles we have no right or reason to fight. historicallt crimea and some of the border regions of the ukraine have been russian, is it shitty that they are picking fights with their neighbors? yes? should we put our nose in their business when we already put our nose in the sandbox for 25 years only to have it bitten off? no, we should sit this one out and let them duke it out.

Historically (in this case, 1883), Germany looked like this:

And in 1938, when Germany wanted some of it back, Germany started some peace keeping, too. Kept a piece of this, and a piece of that... angry letters were sent, but luckily, peace was preserved FOREVER!

 

[Brojon]

speaking frankly, I don't beleive we should be the world police to further jingoistic goals of politicians and corporations that siphon the average joe's dollar into their pockets and the spillage of the average joe's blood on fruitless battles we have no right or reason to fight. historically crimea and some of the border regions of the ukraine have been russian, is it shitty that they are picking fights with their neighbors? yes? should we put our nose in their business when we already put our nose in the sandbox for 25 years only to have it bitten off? no, we should sit this one out and let them duke it out.

Actually that is incorrect. They were annexed into the USSR but were only related to Russia as they shared borders and cultural similarities. Poland has more of a claim on Ukraine than Russia does.
The politicians and their shortcomings are a non sequitur to maintaining world peace.
Surely you remember tales of the Mongols conquering much of Europe, Alexander the Great conquering the known world of his age, the Islamic sweeping of much of southern Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, The Turks?
Lesson to be learned is a quest for power doesn't stop until someone stops it or they run out of places to conquer.
Also consider when they conquer they gain the resources of the conquered - including citizens conscripted for cannon fodder - which they can withhold from everyone else potentially crippling countries they plan to conquer next.
No, the politicians may be dirtbags but we still need to band together against would be dictators and their ambitions.

 

[Kar98]

Actually that is incorrect. They were annexed into the USSR but were only related to Russia as they shared borders and cultural similarities. Poland has more of a claim on Ukraine than Russia does.

So does Lithuania, for that matter, LOL.