Ukraine invasion

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    Sasquatch

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    So I was watching a thing this morning - they're reporting that we have pledged to replace aircraft that Poland is donating to the Ukrainians - Poland gives Ukraine fighter jets, so we give Poland fighter jets to replace them - seems a stretch in logic to say that we're not involved in this shit show up to our collective nut sacks at this point. All it takes is one more step and we wind up up to our neck. Poland is a member of NATO - Putin already said NATO involvement would be met with drastic retaliatory means - if we - the west / NATO / the EU, whoever/whatever keeps pushing we may well be backing Putin into the corner where he does indeed start lobbing glow bugs and expanding his attacks beyond Ukraine.

    We - the US - either need to 100% stay the F out of this mess, or go all in to defend Ukraine. Half measures are just going to lead to more suffering, and prolong the conflict. I prefer erring on the side of staying the F out. At some point WE need to stop playing world police, and let the rest of the world take up that mantle. If those who are right on the door step of Russia refuse to act - that's on them, not on us. We should also remember that we're only something like 60 miles from Russia ourselves via Alaska, so a land invasion of the US isn't out of the question if we get in a shooting war with them. They could launch ballistic missiles or cruise missiles and hit Anchorage / Elmendorf AFB to soften up our forces in Alaska. I don't want to see that.
     

    oldag

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    So I was watching a thing this morning - they're reporting that we have pledged to replace aircraft that Poland is donating to the Ukrainians - Poland gives Ukraine fighter jets, so we give Poland fighter jets to replace them - seems a stretch in logic to say that we're not involved in this shit show up to our collective nut sacks at this point. All it takes is one more step and we wind up up to our neck. Poland is a member of NATO - Putin already said NATO involvement would be met with drastic retaliatory means - if we - the west / NATO / the EU, whoever/whatever keeps pushing we may well be backing Putin into the corner where he does indeed start lobbing glow bugs and expanding his attacks beyond Ukraine.

    We - the US - either need to 100% stay the F out of this mess, or go all in to defend Ukraine. Half measures are just going to lead to more suffering, and prolong the conflict. I prefer erring on the side of staying the F out. At some point WE need to stop playing world police, and let the rest of the world take up that mantle. If those who are right on the door step of Russia refuse to act - that's on them, not on us. We should also remember that we're only something like 60 miles from Russia ourselves via Alaska, so a land invasion of the US isn't out of the question if we get in a shooting war with them. They could launch ballistic missiles or cruise missiles and hit Anchorage / Elmendorf AFB to soften up our forces in Alaska. I don't want to see that.
    Putin will not attack Poland while mired in Ukraine, and probably not thereafter as the fight would be more than he wants.

    I am all for Poland giving jets to Ukraine. Let Ukraine fight for itself as much as it wants. We can sell some F35's to Poland.

    No need to get so hyped.
     

    easy rider

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    Putin will not attack Poland while mired in Ukraine, and probably not thereafter as the fight would be more than he wants.

    I am all for Poland giving jets to Ukraine. Let Ukraine fight for itself as much as it wants. We can sell some F35's to Poland.

    No need to get so hyped.
    Isn't that ignoring Putin's threats of nuclear action?
     

    DaBull

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    As I understand it, POL is giving military aid in the form of Mig 29s to UKR so it can defend itself. To ensure the donation is not perceived as POL or NATO entering the war against RUS, they will likely be flown across the border by UKR pilots without any weapons on board. So POL is not viewed as weakened by the loss of a fighter/attack squadron or two, the US will accelerate POL's existing F-16 buy one for one.

    Countries buy and sell weapons all the time and clients are more likely to buy during a shooting war. Countries give military aid all the time, and they are more likely to do so during a shooting war. During one of the Arab Israeli Wars, the US flew combat aircraft to Israel, the IAF painted over the US markings while munitions were loaded, and IAF pilots began combat ops shortly after. Its not unprecedented. But sure...there is a risk doing this with Putin.
     

    oldag

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    As I understand it, POL is giving military aid in the form of Mig 29s to UKR so it can defend itself. To ensure the donation is not perceived as POL or NATO entering the war against RUS, they will likely be flown across the border by UKR pilots without any weapons on board. So POL is not viewed as weakened by the loss of a fighter/attack squadron or two, the US will accelerate POL's existing F-16 buy one for one.

    Countries buy and sell weapons all the time and clients are more likely to buy during a shooting war. Countries give military aid all the time, and they are more likely to do so during a shooting war. During one of the Arab Israeli Wars, the US flew combat aircraft to Israel, the IAF painted over the US markings while munitions were loaded, and IAF pilots began combat ops shortly after. Its not unprecedented. But sure...there is a risk doing this with Putin.
    We sent Sidewinder and HARM missiles to the Brits during the Falklands war, among other arms.
     

    oldag

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    Advanced Russian armor

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...ps-are-armoring-their-vehicles-with-wood-logs

    1646671142366.png
     

    Renegade

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    As I understand it, POL is giving military aid in the form of Mig 29s to UKR so it can defend itself. To ensure the donation is not perceived as POL or NATO entering the war against RUS, they will likely be flown across the border by UKR pilots without any weapons on board. So POL is not viewed as weakened by the loss of a fighter/attack squadron or two, the US will accelerate POL's existing F-16 buy one for one.

    Flown where?

    When this option was floated, Russia started bombing any runway they could find.
     

    leVieux

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    The last few years have forced me to question anything our main media sources tells us.

    >

    My Late Dad was an USAAC Intelligence Officer in WWII ETO, spent most of his time before D-Day confusing NAZI Intelligence.

    Dad always told me:

    In a war, all "public information" is LIES !

    Ignore what they say, but watch what they DO !

    Never ever trust the British !

    leVieux
    .
     

    benenglish

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    Putin will not attack Poland
    Not yet. First, he has to take enough of Ukraine to feel comfortable before he runs over Moldova, absorbs Transnistria, and then carves off a few miles of Romania.

    Since Romania is in NATO, that will be the big test. He'll only take a few miles and stop. If NATO doesn't go ape on him, he'll just settle in and consolidate for a while.

    Then he'll attack Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Since those are the red-headed step-children of NATO and we set a cowardly precedent in Romania, we won't do anything. Then he'll take the western portion of Poland and because he didn't take it all, we'll sit back and do nothing but humanitarian aid.

    It's kinda like gun control. Our forefathers didn't start shooting people after the NFA passed. So the GCA was passed and our fathers didn't shoot anyone. And since then, a bunch more federal laws have happened and we still haven't shot anyone.

    Once the bad guys know you won't fight back, they'll keep attacking. Not all at once, mind you. They'll wait until enough time has passed for you to forget the pain of the last battle...then they'll take another piece. In that respect, gun controllers and Putin work exactly the same way.

    If I were a betting man, I'd guess the Russians will march into Poland in more than 5 years but less than 10.

    The only thing that will derail his plans is if we start getting ready for the attack on western Romania and commit to defending that country. If we don't, NATO is telling Putin that he has a free pass.

    All the above is my likely-misinformed opinion. Everybody should feel free to blast me about how wrong I'm going to be.
     
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