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When do you think China is going to invade and take Taiwan ?

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  • Wolfwood

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    45tex

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    The Sino American Defense Treaty It expired in 1980

    Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 Since it was an act of our Congress it falls short
    of helping Taiwan with military aid. (But I'm sure it would result in a strongly worded letter if the Chinese reclaimed Taiwan the Republic of China)
     

    mavs

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    China has us so reliable on medicines and critical materials that I think they know that we can't just "leave the area"

    They know that Biden is weak and basically his entire administration is the same.

    I worry that they see this as an opportunity in the next 4 years and will take advantage of it.
     

    Axxe55

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    China has us so reliable on medicines and critical materials that I think they know that we can't just "leave the area"

    They know that Biden is weak and basically his entire administration is the same.

    I worry that they see this as an opportunity in the next 4 years and will take advantage of it.

    Many pharmacueticals are manufactured in China because it's cheap and the big pharma companies can make bigger profits.

    Of course Biden is weak. That ain't exactly a news flash for most of us. But assuming those in his administration, or those pulling Biden, and Harris' strings are weak, is rather naive, or delusional.

    Sheesh, I thought even Gambler knew that.
     

    oldag

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    We gave up on Taiwan a long time ago. Maybe John Cena will get his super hero friends to defend it with their lives. Maybe not. Since virtually the entire world has bowed down to China who will fight to defend Taiwan? I don't want my grand son going.

    When China was sabre rattling about Taiwan, W sent a carrier task force through the straits. China shut up.

    But that was a while back.
     

    oldag

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    The reality is that money is a bigger driver than their so-called national pride. Right now, China is making incredible amounts of money and taking over the world economy by lending money to everybody - esp. the USA - and thus "owning" us via debt. If they go to war, ALL THAT DEBT WILL DEFAULT. Ouch. How much is Taiwan worth to the Chinese economy? A lot, but not that much. What's the Biden/Harris administration doing right now? Borrowing record-breaking amounts of money to try to install their socialist agenda. Borrowing from who? China.

    On the other hand, if there ever was an ideal time, it would be late in the Biden/Harris administration. There's no way in hell those two could manage a war.

    Wish that were true, but I would expect crocodile tears and no action from the rest of the world.
     

    oldag

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    China knows that a plurality (majority?) of their oil flows in tankers from the Middle East, around India, and up the coast of eastern Asia. If the U.S. stopped protecting those sea lanes, China would be destroyed.

    All the U.S. has to do to defeat China militarily is leave the area. When the pirates move in and start ransoming the flow of oil, China is toast in many ways. It would probably fall apart into warring regions like it was before WW2.

    If they're insane enough to make war on Taiwan, they must be convinced that our leadership is so compromised as to be unwilling to engage in even passive resistance against such a move.

    Uh...

    OK, that's a heavy enough realization that I'll have to think on it a while before I can comment further.

    Umm, no.

    China would use that as an excuse to deploy their navy in the area, which they would love to have an excuse to do so.

    In the short term, China could hurt us worse by cutting off their critical exports than we could hurt them economically.
     

    LaborLawPaul

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    "China" as a nation state is a relative new-comer on the global stage. I believe that amalgamation of persons came to together around 1912. Since then, I would categorize it more as a criminal enterprise than a nation eager to invade any other kingdom. Germans scare me; Chinese, not so much.

    With that in mind, I suspect China would be smarter about taking over Taiwan. Why take a bullet needlessly?

    For instance, they could throw around a few, tens of billions of dollars to key politicians, give their family members high-paying corporate "jobs", place intelligence agents throughout the target nation disguised as corporate officers and students, then they could rig elections to ensure their paid-for-ponies win whichever races they want.

    Without firing a shot, the Chinese Communist Party would find itself in charge of any nation it chose to take over. This is especially true if the leaders of said nation are less than virtuous.

    Just a theory of course. That could never happen. Right?
     

    benenglish

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    China would use that as an excuse to deploy their navy in the area, which they would love to have an excuse to do so.
    I don't disagree with your overall point but you've got this one wrong. The Chinese navy isn't equipped to project any real power more than 1000 miles from port. They're trying to build it but it will be decades before they could secure the entire trade route to the Middle East.

    Right now, the Japanese could completely kick their ass.

    I take solace in the fact that if China invaded Taiwan, the U.S. could utterly humiliate them in a hot war.

    That is, if we have the will, the leadership, and the courage.

    And that's a big "if."
     

    Wolfwood

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    "China" as a nation state is a relative new-comer on the global stage. I believe that amalgamation of persons came to together around 1912. Since then, I would categorize it more as a criminal enterprise than a nation eager to invade any other kingdom. Germans scare me; Chinese, not so much.

    With that in mind, I suspect China would be smarter about taking over Taiwan. Why take a bullet needlessly?

    For instance, they could throw around a few, tens of billions of dollars to key politicians, give their family members high-paying corporate "jobs", place intelligence agents throughout the target nation disguised as corporate officers and students, then they could rig elections to ensure their paid-for-ponies win whichever races they want.

    Without firing a shot, the Chinese Communist Party would find itself in charge of any nation it chose to take over. This is especially true if the leaders of said nation are less than virtuous.

    Just a theory of course. That could never happen. Right?

    No reason to fear the Germans anymore.
    Their own chancellor has seen to that.
     
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