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Coronavirus Epidemic, Part 2

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  • Texasgordo

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    May 15, 2008
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    toddnjoyce

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    And what divisor are you using when you calculate that 2%? ...

    Death is a part of life.

    If you care to know, case fatality rate is what you’re asking about. It’s the ratio of deaths to infections, but irrelevant at this stage of the game. R-naught/ R-sub zero (amount of people infected by one person) is more important, but only in a rough sense in that if R-naught is less than 1, it’s good and more than is bad (in a general sense).

    We don’t know what relationship any of this data has to anything, just educated conjecture.

    And that’s why I quit worrying about all this shit back in March; we only know what is known and knowable. Without recognizing the unknown and unknowable it’s like looking through a soda straw in a narrow window slit. Over time the window slit gets wider, but it ain’t all that big yet.
     

    innominate

    Asian Cajun
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    3   0   0
    Jan 3, 2010
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    If you care to know, case fatality rate is what you’re asking about. It’s the ratio of deaths to infections, but irrelevant at this stage of the game. R-naught/ R-sub zero (amount of people infected by one person) is more important, but only in a rough sense in that if R-naught is less than 1, it’s good and more than is bad (in a general sense).

    We don’t know what relationship any of this data has to anything, just educated conjecture.

    And that’s why I quit worrying about all this shit back in March; we only know what is known and knowable. Without recognizing the unknown and unknowable it’s like looking through a soda straw in a narrow window slit. Over time the window slit gets wider, but it ain’t all that big yet.
    Iirc they were saying the r value was 2 or 3 early on. Not sure what they were basing that value. Or what the current r value is. For reference to those that do not know seasonal flu r value is ~1.
     

    Coop45

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    A friend asked me how I was doing the other day and I told her that was a very personal question coming from someone hiding their identity behind a mask.

    There is fun to be had out there. Enjoy it while we have it. Or like Clayton Williams said............
     

    Coop45

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    I understandThat, but a good friend is a lvl 4 trauma surgeon and er Director for a huge hospital. He says for 11 people to all be under 98, with only 1 of those 11 being above 97.6, is outside of statistical norms.

    Additionally, the temp gun the tsa dude was using was a “Chicago tools” (harbor freight)... which are nether reliable, nor calibrated.

    I’m not asserting that everyone in front of us had high temps. I’m likewise not asserting that any of them necessarily did. What I am asserting is that tolerance/error stacking, for lack of a better term, tells my seat of the pants bs matter that there are a lot of factors that’s are being... misused? misunderstood?... uselessly, mindlessly adhered to? temp being one of them, by bureaucracies and corporations that all lead me to believe that several layers of our “reasonable precautions” are bs- or close.

    LOL! At least they stop asking me if I've got shortness of breath when I show them my oxygen machine and ask their opinion. There is fun to be had out there.
     
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