Hey Mow,
I agree that other companies will enter the market. There is actually one company I've seen with $99 silencers! That means the tax stamp is 2x the can! I won't mention names, but I did get some of their cans in. I'll first say that I haven't shot them or tested them or anything else. But, when you hold their can and then hold a SilencerCo Sparrow, for example, you'd probably be willing to fork over the extra $300. As for silencer companies coming down on their products, I'm not sure that'll really happen. What I suspect might rather happen is that every guy with a garage and a trust fund will set up a CNC machine to make $99 silencers too. We will be flooded with "Walmart silencers". Without disparaging the brands, consider that if you want a 9mm, you could buy a Hi Point, a SCCY, a Taurus, a Bersa, or probably dozens of other names for under $200. So why in the hell would anyone spend $500 on a Glock or $900 on an HK made out of plastic?! Nevermind paying $1000 - $4000 for a steel frame 1911. There's no way a Wilson Combat 1911 in 45 is 20 times better than a Hi Point in 45. Hell, they shoot the same bullets and are just as deadly, right? You'd have thought when HP came out and showed the world a 45 could be made for $100 or so (retailed for $170), WC would have quit price gouging and dropped that $3500 price at least in half.
Same for ARs. Our $499 Diamondback AR with quad rail versus our $1600 Daniel Defense versus our $2500 LWRC...? Can the LWRC justify the 5x markup over the Diamondback? Don't they know they can build $500 ARs and still make a profit?
Point being, and (while I am an engineer) I'm no silencer maker, I don't know exactly what goes into the difference between $900 (our retail price) on an Omega and $99 on the other can. Sure, one is full auto rated and comes in a nice box instead of a plastic sleeve, but for $800 more? Well, possibly it's the same concept as the difference between $179, $500, $1000, and $3500 guns. So maybe the "real" silencers won't actually come down much (other than the economies of scale I mentioned before) but rather the market will be flooded with cheap, aluminum, "better than nothing" novelty cans...that will sell at Walmart and Academy.
And to that point, at least silencers have "parts". $300 for a Noveske billet receiver? It's just a block of metal carved out with a CNC machine, right? Should be $50. I bet many guys with $60 Anderson lowers can outshoot the Noveske lower owners (assuming same uppers and barrels, etc).
In short, I don't know what will happen but I don't think all these silencer companies will think "shit, we're going to have to cut our 95% profit margin down to 20% or so...foiled again!" Time will tell...or not, since I don't think HPA will happen unfortunately.
Of course, I'm sure many more SCCYs are sold than WC too so maybe that's not even a bad business model. Low margin, super high volume sales versus "mil spec, ninja warrior" cans.
I agree that other companies will enter the market. There is actually one company I've seen with $99 silencers! That means the tax stamp is 2x the can! I won't mention names, but I did get some of their cans in. I'll first say that I haven't shot them or tested them or anything else. But, when you hold their can and then hold a SilencerCo Sparrow, for example, you'd probably be willing to fork over the extra $300. As for silencer companies coming down on their products, I'm not sure that'll really happen. What I suspect might rather happen is that every guy with a garage and a trust fund will set up a CNC machine to make $99 silencers too. We will be flooded with "Walmart silencers". Without disparaging the brands, consider that if you want a 9mm, you could buy a Hi Point, a SCCY, a Taurus, a Bersa, or probably dozens of other names for under $200. So why in the hell would anyone spend $500 on a Glock or $900 on an HK made out of plastic?! Nevermind paying $1000 - $4000 for a steel frame 1911. There's no way a Wilson Combat 1911 in 45 is 20 times better than a Hi Point in 45. Hell, they shoot the same bullets and are just as deadly, right? You'd have thought when HP came out and showed the world a 45 could be made for $100 or so (retailed for $170), WC would have quit price gouging and dropped that $3500 price at least in half.
Same for ARs. Our $499 Diamondback AR with quad rail versus our $1600 Daniel Defense versus our $2500 LWRC...? Can the LWRC justify the 5x markup over the Diamondback? Don't they know they can build $500 ARs and still make a profit?
Point being, and (while I am an engineer) I'm no silencer maker, I don't know exactly what goes into the difference between $900 (our retail price) on an Omega and $99 on the other can. Sure, one is full auto rated and comes in a nice box instead of a plastic sleeve, but for $800 more? Well, possibly it's the same concept as the difference between $179, $500, $1000, and $3500 guns. So maybe the "real" silencers won't actually come down much (other than the economies of scale I mentioned before) but rather the market will be flooded with cheap, aluminum, "better than nothing" novelty cans...that will sell at Walmart and Academy.
And to that point, at least silencers have "parts". $300 for a Noveske billet receiver? It's just a block of metal carved out with a CNC machine, right? Should be $50. I bet many guys with $60 Anderson lowers can outshoot the Noveske lower owners (assuming same uppers and barrels, etc).
In short, I don't know what will happen but I don't think all these silencer companies will think "shit, we're going to have to cut our 95% profit margin down to 20% or so...foiled again!" Time will tell...or not, since I don't think HPA will happen unfortunately.
Of course, I'm sure many more SCCYs are sold than WC too so maybe that's not even a bad business model. Low margin, super high volume sales versus "mil spec, ninja warrior" cans.