You're kind of right, but only about some things. You're also talking macroeconomics versus microeconomics, but you know that of course. Very "democrat" of you. Call it ivory-tower academics versus reality. Welcome to the real world, professor.I'd also bet 1000 dollars you voted Biden just like other gun and armor dealers because they make a shit ton more money during democrat rule.
You have the actual producer. Then you have the standard distribution channels. But then you have a normal consumer who becomes a seller. And as for your knowledge about the gun business, eh, it's not so good. We sold ammo without an FFL, because you don't need one, before we got the FFL. I could buy it from a few normal firearms distributor, but we also could buy it from a lawn and garden distributor. The real essence was that we didn't pay sales tax since it was resale. It is true, that we had to be a retailer to buy from distributors, but that wasn't necessarily a Remington thing. That was more from the distributors. I'll give you a pass on still calling it "reseller law", but so as far as controlling who sells their product, not really. Some manfs have distribution agreements. More don't. That's also where MAP pricing comes in that so many customer bitch about. If there is an agreement, it's usually just to not disclose wholesale pricing. The net effect is that I did have access to that because I am a retailer in general, but it's not directly controlled by Remington. And once I own the product, even as a reseller, Remington doesn't give a rats ass what I sell it for (again, contrary to MAP agreements like on Vortex, Glock, and others).
Suffice it to say we were part of the "standard distribution channel to the consuming public". I was splitting hairs over the actual producer. And as we'll ignore my use as a consumer, which we technically are, when we use it for training or classes or testing. So we're both.
However, what about the myrid of other examples where people buy and sell: houses, cars, boats, and especially other durables. In many cases, things are bought for X and sold for X-plus. Many guns are bought, used, and later sold. Hell, I could buy a crate of Mosin-Nagants just a few years ago for $2000 (20 guns). Today they're $300 each. When is it gouging versus just good timing?
There is not enough buying power in the people who are buying the ammo to create false scarcity. This isn't the Hunt Brothers cornering the silver market. Or DeBeers or other cartels artificially controlling supply. You want to know who really creates the false scarcity? The consumer. When someone who really needs one box of 9mm buys 10 because they heard it's hard to find. Technically, that's real demand. It'll also tend to die off or normalize just like the AR market did when the prices crashed after 2012(?).
Truth is, you don't really understand the false scarcity concept I guess. Supply isn't being artifically constrained. Primers are the bottleneck. Primers are being made as fast as they can. There is no artificial constraint. And nobody is hoarding ammo. You really think one guy is buying all this up just to constrict the supply? If anything, it's the opposite problem. There is (like this COVID bullshit) a false panic. It's like all these retards buying up toilet paper . Is there a shortage of toilet paper ? Well, yes, but not because Charmin is controlling it. They woke up one day and said WTF? Where'd the TP go? Pandemic, irrational buying is driving the price up. It's like myriad stocks. Ever hear Cramer (or Alan Greenspan) mention "irrational exuberance"? It's like that. People keep demanding more, regardless of intrinsic value. It's also like art. There is a finite number of Picassos. You want it. You have to pay more than the last guy did if it's still in vogue. If it's Beanie Babies though, someone got punked. Someone paid $1000 for that Princess Di beanie baby I found at Goodwill that my dog chews on.
As for business, a producer cannot elastically produce the product. "Artificial scarcity" requires the concept that supply is elastic and an "infinite quantity" can be produced to satisfy infinite demand. Not so, not really. If Remington (CCI, Federal, Winchester) wanted to tool up to make more primers, it might take a big investment and a 2 to 5 year payback or break even on the investment. They don't know how long this will last. They're running 24/7/365 right now but it's not smart to add 50-100% capacity just to meet what is surely a short term issue. Remember when 22 ammo was scarce and people said "they should build another factory"? That's why those people don't run businesses.
So the primer makers (the bottleneck) can't keep up. It's the opposite of artificial scarcity. It's not an infinite supply.
As for the other part of that the the consumer who collect and becomes a distributor or dealer, well, that's just finding opportunity. Is the house flipper a producer or consumer? Is the gun collector who sells at gunshows a producer or consumer? Is the guy selling his stockpile of ammo he bought (when he had a coupon or some cheapshit.com website was blowing it out with free shipping) for a markup now a producer? Is that guy the source of your so called scarcity?
As far as the reseller scarcity model, which is arguable (even in professional circles), the collective buying power of the public (as resellers) is not coordinated enough or powerful enough to create the scarcity. People or businesses buying up concert tickets is kind of that idea, but that's a VERY finite supply. Ammo is still being produced. It's widely available. And if someone is hoarding, they'll get stuck with it at some point.
I accept your bet, by the way. You can bring cash by. $1000. Whatever denominations you choose. Just please don't run over my Trump sign in front of our business like the girl who took out our fence the other day. While other people say they support Trump, and normal business owners say to not discuss politics for fear of alienating customers, we have posted, and sell, TRUMP 2020 flags in our store, have the Trump punisher shirts, and have yard signs in front of our business. My wife drove in the Magnolia parade in her logoed truck with the Women for Trump flags. I'm the guy who stands by myself with 400 BLM protestors in Tomball holding a "Blue Lives Matter" sign (made the local paper). I'm the guy who wore a mask exactly one time: in my wife's OB drs office. I saw all those women with big guts and said "I don't want to catch what they got" so I wore a mask. While you're drinking Kool Aid, I'm drinking whisky.
We actually got into the business during the last year of Obama. When Trump got elected I said, "This is great for the country. Not so good for business. But as an ethical person, I think what's good for the country is more important than my selfish interests." Of course, we didn't get in the gun business based on the massive profits. We got in because we had a complementary business and the gun customers we tried to refer down the street said those guys sucked. So I said, "Well, if you're trying to spend that money anyway, let me see what I can do to get my FFL." And for three years we had the Trump slump. I did 5 gun shows. Never made a profit. Other vendors were reminiscing about selling $40k in a weekend during Obama. Now they couldn't pay their $80 table rent. I hear it's back to Obama levels, but I don't do gunshows anymore.
So maybe make it $2000. It might only be worth $1000 by the time I get the money. Call it election inflation. Alternatively, if you have small pistol primers, I'll take trade. I'll give you $150/1000 primers credit. How's that sound. Bring me 6500 primers and we'll call it even.
Finally, when you see these guys flipping ammo for a profit, just consider, they might have just been forcibly laid off due to some ivory tower "good for thee but not for me" experts telling us to shut down. Maybe the only way they can pay their bills is by adapting to the new world order. I think it's ridiculous that people sit in line at Academy to buy one or two boxes of ammo each day. Some people go to 10-Ring every day to buy their ONE sleeve of primers. Talk about expensive! Oh well. So maybe that guy flipping ammo is putting in the grind to find it, consolidate it, and make it available...and that meager profit he makes is putting food on his table. And when the store is selling it for a premium, it's because he can't get any guns in to sell to pay the normal bills.
Funny how people on here and elsewhere always want sellers to make just enough to eat and stay dry. Anything else is gouging.