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  • Rafe

    Foxtrot Kilo Hotel
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    skfullgun

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    In the woods...
    Actually, it does. In those sparsely populated areas, there is considerably more “area” needed to include 100,000 individuals.
    Therefore, density impacts the ratio as depicted in the graph.
    The graph depicts the likelihood of encountering “danger” in relation to the number of people you will encounter in any given geographical location.
     
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    Dred

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    Actually, it does. In those sparsely populated areas, there is considerably more “area” needed to include 100,000 individuals.
    Therefore, density impacts the ratio as depicted in the graph.
    The graph depicts the likelihood of encountering “danger” in relation to the number of people you will counter in any given geographical location.
    The coyote aint wrong. Stats are reported by county. .25 per 1000 is the same as 25 per 100,000. The counties don't change size to reach or shrink to 100k.

    Striking my argument against density effects. Brain cell reactivated.

    Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
     
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    Me

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    When it states per 100,000- then density does not matter, just the ratio itself. It's a math thing.


    Trust me, I know stats. The smaller the population though the bigger effect the outliers have. Consider the effect a flier will have on a three shot group's standard deviation. Now think about that same flier on a 20 shot group.

    So let's say you're looking at Nye County NV with a population of 55k people and an area of 18k square miles and they have one murder last year*. That one murder just earned you a murder rate of 2/100k. Now you have NYC with a 8.3M people and an area of 302 square miles. You need 1660 murders to obtain that same 2/100k per capita murder rate all concentrated into an area < 2% the size of Nye County. Both have the same per capita results but which would you feel safer in?

    edit: typo
    edit two: I looked it up and Nye County by happenstance did in fact have just one murder in 2024 so far this year (good guess I suppose, they also had a 100% clearance rate on that single murder), NYC has "only" had 246 as of July reported numbers. By the "math thing" that says that NYC is considerably safer than Nye County but I think all of us logically know we'd be safer in Nye than NYC. Original asterisk below...

    *the population and area are correct but I didn't go look up their actual murder rate
     
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