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[cycleguy2300]

View attachment 409781

I dont think Hamas/Isreal will start WWIII, could be wrong, but I dont see it just yet.

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[wakosama]

 

[wakosama]

 

[wakosama]

 

[wakosama]

 

[wakosama]

 

[wakosama]

 

[Yonse]

 

[Yonse]

 

[Yonse]

 

[Yonse]

 

[Yonse]

 

[Yonse]

 

[John Sam Rayburn]

 

[Me]

I dont think Hamas/Isreal will start WWIII, could be wrong, but I dont see it just yet.

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Unlikely but there are scenarios. Hezbollah jumps into the fray so Israel curb-stomps all of southern Lebanon. Iran sees both its proxies exterminated in less than a month so decides to engage directly. Provided the current administration doesn't just turn our back on our ally we then have the Eisenhower and Ford carrier groups engage Iran and destroy all of their air defenses. Israel with air superiority starts leveling every military and political target in the country. If Iran has a nuke (or is able to go nuclear capable during all of this) they attempt to glass Tel Aviv. We *probably* stay conventional at that point since their arsenal wouldn't be extensive. Meanwhile Russia has lost an important supplier of arms with Iran up to their eyeballs in crap. Ukraine pushes the advantage and starts to get some movement on their currently stagnated lines. Putin fearing a loss himself lobs a nuke a Kyiv. Now what? Alternatively, China sees us distracted with both Ukraine and Israel/Iran and decides now is the time to hit Taiwan. Maybe that's not an invasion, maybe it's just a blockade, but we'd send a carrier group at least to observe and we'd be running sorties, lots of action in close proximity things can go sideways and with tensions high it's easy to go from "presence" to "dynamic" in short order.

I'll admit those are very big chains of events and none of them highly probable but there are plausible paths to get there. Realistically a "world war" would require us and at least either China or Russia to get something truly global going. We could easily see a pretty damn big regional conflict erupt out of this though. Iranian involvement is not far fetched. We'd likely (at least we should) join in if Iran gets involved. KSA probably does as well. Iranians could push the Yemenis into it in response. I don't think Europe would join that directly but they'd probably have "peacekeepers" on the ground in areas which increases chances for "errant" casualties that moves them into direct actors.

Pulling lots of threads there. Middle east is currently a tinderbox more than it's been in 40 years. Probably doesn't result in WWIII but there's potential for it.

 

[benenglish]

Unlikely but there are scenarios.

We'll run short of MOABs awfully quick if much of that happens.

 

[Steve In Texas]

The WWIII ground work is being laid through appeasement. Maybe quick action deters.

 

[General Zod]

Unlikely but there are scenarios. Hezbollah jumps into the fray so Israel curb-stomps all of southern Lebanon. Iran sees both its proxies exterminated in less than a month so decides to engage directly. Provided the current administration doesn't just turn our back on our ally we then have the Eisenhower and Ford carrier groups engage Iran and destroy all of their air defenses. Israel with air superiority starts leveling every military and political target in the country. If Iran has a nuke (or is able to go nuclear capable during all of this) they attempt to glass Tel Aviv. We *probably* stay conventional at that point since their arsenal wouldn't be extensive. Meanwhile Russia has lost an important supplier of arms with Iran up to their eyeballs in crap. Ukraine pushes the advantage and starts to get some movement on their currently stagnated lines. Putin fearing a loss himself lobs a nuke a Kyiv. Now what? Alternatively, China sees us distracted with both Ukraine and Israel/Iran and decides now is the time to hit Taiwan. Maybe that's not an invasion, maybe it's just a blockade, but we'd send a carrier group at least to observe and we'd be running sorties, lots of action in close proximity things can go sideways and with tensions high it's easy to go from "presence" to "dynamic" in short order.

I'll admit those are very big chains of events and none of them highly probable but there are plausible paths to get there. Realistically a "world war" would require us and at least either China or Russia to get something truly global going. We could easily see a pretty damn big regional conflict erupt out of this though. Iranian involvement is not far fetched. We'd likely (at least we should) join in if Iran gets involved. KSA probably does as well. Iranians could push the Yemenis into it in response. I don't think Europe would join that directly but they'd probably have "peacekeepers" on the ground in areas which increases chances for "errant" casualties that moves them into direct actors.

Pulling lots of threads there. Middle east is currently a tinderbox more than it's been in 40 years. Probably doesn't result in WWIII but there's potential for it.

Seems like China making a move is most likely, in my opinion.

However, I'm having trouble finding any scenario where the current administration takes direct action against anybody. Unless Iran jumps right to nuking Israel, which they may or may not have the capability to do yet, the Biden administration is not going to do anything against Ayatollah-land.

 

[benenglish]

Seems like China making a move is most likely, in my opinion.

However, I'm having trouble finding any scenario where the current administration takes direct action against anybody.

Luckily, China making a move doesn't require direct (i.e., local-to-China) action to counter. Just cut off their oil supplies traversing the Indian ocean and watch China shrivel up and die.

ETA - Whether the current administration has the guts is a whole different question, sad to say.

 

[oldag]

Seems like China making a move is most likely, in my opinion.

However, I'm having trouble finding any scenario where the current administration takes direct action against anybody. Unless Iran jumps right to nuking Israel, which they may or may not have the capability to do yet, the Biden administration is not going to do anything against Ayatollah-land.

You are probably right.