Coronavirus Epidemic, Part 2

[Brains]

So it sounds like, with the currently available stats, they are matching the observations that people really aren't disappearing from the surface of the Earth with any dramatic frequency above the average? In other words, COVID on its own hasn't been a statistical multiplier for the number of people who ultimately expire in a given amount of time? That's really what I'm looking for, an answer to the ultimate question of "are we responding to COVID in an appropriate manner." I agree with an abundance of caution, but I also agree with the avoidance of overreaction.

If you look back to other pandemics throughout recorded history there was an undeniable bump in the total mortality rate within a given time period that coincided with the illness. THAT is really the question I'm looking to answer. If COVID shows a similar pattern, and that rate is significant and/or evidence leads to it becoming significant, then fine - lets entertain locking things down. But if the numbers just aren't indicative of the need, how about we cool our jets a bit and get back to living our lives. I'm not an expert, and I am most certainly not claiming to be. But those who are claiming to be experts? Back up your position and advice with facts.

 

[jrbfishn]

Good questions. Realizing that the mortality rate is 100% for all of us so eventually we all meet that criteria. I guess you are asking if Covid makes that happen earlier, correct? I think it does. For the 80 year old vegetable in a nursing home they may live that way for another year, two who knows, but if they become Covid positive they have a relatively high chance of death sooner rather than later. They would be counted as a Covid death if they became positive and died. Some may consider it a blessing as I sure don't want to vegetate like that, my MIL died last year that way of "natural causes". So obviously the Covid mortality rate is higher in people with other serious problems.
If you are under 40 the statistics are pretty good. Over 40 is where the problems are and apparently increase with age. Realize though that it is not possible to determine if Covid changes overall mortality as that is 100% already, all we can say is that about 2% of people with Covid die with what appears to be a Covid death. If you are like me, a well over 60 year old relatively healthy person, I am not ready to die earlier than was meant to be and will do everything I can to prevent Covid. That is not fear monging or alarmist, just reality. I wear a seatbelt when I drive too. I treat my firearms with the utmost respect, I try to always carry, I don't text and drive, I have not had a speeding ticket in over 60 years (yes I am old), I don't drink.
So, total overall mortality is 100%, has there been a deviation where the expected mortality rate is higher in a given population this year vs. last year, I don't know. The reality now though is that ICU occupancy is getting tight, treatment has gotten better though with drugs, plasma, ventilators, experience. Eventually a vaccine I hope that is safe. Epidemics are not new, I remember as a kid the polio epidemics and was so thankful that Dr. Salk was there for us. Things will get better so just be careful until they do.

Rotor, I have no problem with being cautious or prepared. I carry too. I have a small bottle of hand sanitizer in the car and the truck. Just because I am not scared doesn't mean I am not cautious. I ain't stupid.
But giving partial data and wanting people to be scared is not helping anyone.
The truth is, the way they are reporting deaths as covid is padding the numbers by a lot. And still, your chance of it killing you are slim. It was known to be far deadlier to older people with underlying illnesses long before it spread in the U.S.. If every State had taken better steps to protect those in nursing homes, elderly care facilities and hospices at least half of the deaths could have been prevented.
Hospitals are another place where your chance of getting it are high.
Outside of those places,IIRC, 60%-70% of people that get covid are quarantined and it is brought in by careless people. That is the main reason I have not been to visit some friends that are susceptible to covid or the flu. To make sure I don't give it to them not knowing if I have it.
Even knowing what little I do about it, I would not want to give it to people I don't like let alone the ones I do.

Now just to be clear, I don't WANT anyone to die. Period.
But tell me, how much misery how we supposed to put up with at the hands of government to maybe give the vulnerable .05% of those that catch covid a little more time?
How many of our freedoms are an acceptable trade?
You tell me, how much of your life are you willing to give up?
Personally, for some, if it's by my choice, everything.
For those that want to hoodwink me out of it, not a damn thing!

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[toddnjoyce]

... If COVID shows a similar pattern, and that rate is significant and/or evidence leads to it becoming significant, then fine - lets entertain locking things down...

That data takes time to gather and analyze. Just like the question of where are the hot spots for transmission? Data shows most people are contracting it at home. But it’s really hard to remember everywhere you’ve been and everybody you’ve been in contact with in the last 10 days and a lot of people don’t or won’t share that info with contact tracing.

Until you know the places where transmission really occurs, you have no idea where to target certain preventative measures. What we do know is that close to 80% of Americans report wearing a mask most of the time they interact with others, that they try to be socially distant when they can, and that they generally are washing/sanitizing more often. Those measures should be enough to keep the disease at a manageable level. Except population density seems to be a factor, too.

And then there js Stanford and their study of blood collected during dialysis, which extrapolated that 3x-6x as many people who have tested positive may already have been exposed. So, with about 11M Americans having tested positive, the true rate could be as high as 60M Americans. If that becomes the denominator, then the CFR drops from 2% to potentially as low as 0.4%.

All this takes time and the benefit of hindsight to understand what really happened yet an instant gratification society says all we will ever know about this we’ve learned already and we need answers now.

 

[avvidclif]

I have a friend in his 90's who had Covid and survived. The kicker is he only has one lung and smokes like a chimney. His other lung was removed in the 30's. He said he's weaker than water but still getting around.

 

[innominate]

, all we can say is that about 2% of people with Covid die with what appears to be a Covid death. If you are like me, a well over 60 year old relatively healthy person, I am not ready to die earlier than was meant to be and will do everything I can to prevent Covid.

So a few pages ago you were saying absolute 2% of infected die from covid. Now you're saying what appears to be Covid. You also either missed or declined to comment on your source for the 2% death rate wrote
"local health officials said all Wichita County deaths are COVID-19 related, but not everyone died as a direct result of the disease.

Health Director Lou Kreidler said the county reports them as COVID related deaths because they were infected with COVID-19 at time of death"

I understand taking precautions to not get Covid. Being a healthcare worker I go thru gallons of hand sanitizer and boxes of gloves. I recommend vigilant hand hygiene. That, imo, will do you more good than the mask mandate. Being around blood and body fluid all day I'm constantly washing my hands. If there is a question, your hands are contaminated. If you're not sure, your hands are contaminated. If you touch anything, your hands are contaminated. Assume your hands are contaminated. Reply to this post on your tablet, your hands are contaminated. Wear a mask if it makes you feel better but definitely wash your hands.

 

[Vaquero]

I'm healthier than ever.
I get twice as much exercise.
Always get to the storefront and see the mask signs. Go all the way back to the truck to get my muzzle and then start over.

 

[innominate]

That data takes time to gather and analyze. Just like the question of where are the hot spots for transmission? Data shows most people are contracting it at home. But it’s really hard to remember everywhere you’ve been and everybody you’ve been in contact with in the last 10 days and a lot of people don’t or won’t share that info with contact tracing.

Until you know the places where transmission really occurs, you have no idea where to target certain preventative measures. What we do know is that close to 80% of Americans report wearing a mask most of the time they interact with others, that they try to be socially distant when they can, and that they generally are washing/sanitizing more often. Those measures should be enough to keep the disease at a manageable level. Except population density seems to be a factor, too.

And then there js Stanford and their study of blood collected during dialysis, which extrapolated that 3x-6x as many people who have tested positive may already have been exposed. So, with about 11M Americans having tested positive, the true rate could be as high as 60M Americans. If that becomes the denominator, then the CFR drops from 2% to potentially as low as 0.4%.

All this takes time and the benefit of hindsight to understand what really happened yet an instant gratification society says all we will ever know about this we’ve learned already and we need answers now.

Where transmission occurs. That's a good statement. We ate at a taco place today. For what ever reason the staff were wearing gloves. In a few minutes of observing the staff they did not change gloves and wash their hands. They touched point of service consoles, their face covering, plates, glasses, personal devices, doors, etc. The staff pretty much contaminated everything I could visualize in about 5 minutes.

 

[jrbfishn]

I have a friend in his 90's who had Covid and survived. The kicker is he only has one lung and smokes like a chimney. His other lung was removed in the 30's. He said he's weaker than water but still getting around.

I did read a report, I believe from Europe, that said although 25% of the population were smokers, only 3%-5% were smokers. It would seem that covid doesn't like smoke.

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[cycleguy2300]

So all of the doctors in the country are perjuring themselves and lying on official documents to boost the number of covid deaths. They get no financial benefit from this and risk loss of their license and possible even jail sentences lying on official government forms. Talk about stupid conspiracy theories. Do you really believe this? Do you lie on your 4473 forms? Where does this lunacy come from? Do you seriously believe that this is a government conspiracy? Worldwide? Perhaps the doctors in every country are the conspirators boosting the numbers of Covid deaths for..... I can't think of a reason.
Can you show me any source from anywhere in the world that the mortality rate is less than 0.01% as listed by members on this forum? Some of whom are seriously mathematically challenged,

Not all, but many are erring on the side that any symptoms of covid mean it was probable covid if they die.

There are a few egregious examples of a suicide from a GSW, the cause of death was listed as covid...

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[cycleguy2300]

So Brazos county is doing good with less than 1% death rate, a total of 8401 cases and 81 deaths. But this is not the less than 0.01% mortality rate claimed by some, it is just under 1%. Your hospital is doing good or your people are tougher than in my community. Your ICU is at 75% capacity. Stay healthy.

"ICU capacity" is extremely liquid, there are usually many beds that can magically become "ICU beds" if they need them. ICU bed capacity is a terrible gauge of how bad covid is.

The single best Indicators are death rates and the transmission index.

As for the assertion co-morbitities don't matter is incorrect. Covid is much more likely to bump someone nearing death anyway than it it to outright kill them. It generally kills people that were on their way out already. If you don't have anything but covid, the chances of death are very, very slim. It is people who ate like shit and smoked and didn't take care of themselves that are driving the death rates up to the moderately bad numbers we see today.





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[oldag]

And then there js Stanford and their study of blood collected during dialysis, which extrapolated that 3x-6x as many people who have tested positive may already have been exposed. So, with about 11M Americans having tested positive, the true rate could be as high as 60M Americans. If that becomes the denominator, then the CFR drops from 2% to potentially as low as 0.4%.

Which matches the Diamond Princess data.

 

[oldag]

I'm healthier than ever.
I get twice as much exercise.
Always get to the storefront and see the mask signs. Go all the way back to the truck to get my muzzle and then start over.

I just walk in.

 

[Brains]

It sounds like most of us are in agreement that lockdowns and mask mandates haven't been the solution then? If they worked, shouldn't the numbers not be rising again? Or is there a new excuse .. I mean reason?

 

[toddnjoyce]

It sounds like most of us are in agreement that lockdowns and mask mandates haven't been the solution then? If they worked, shouldn't the numbers not be rising again? Or is there a new excuse .. I mean reason?

What people don’t understand is that disease eradication isn’t realistically achievable.

With anything this complex, single solutions by themselves won’t work. Even with multiple layers of defense, you can’t control nature; mitigation is the best you can achieve. Accepting that is hard for a lot of people.

Guess what else. Even if there’s a 100% effective vaccine, people are still going to catch this virus, get sick, and die from it for a few years at a minimum. It is also possible that the virus may have the staying power of the common cold.

All things we don’t know the answer to yet.

 

[oldag]

What people don’t understand is that disease eradication isn’t realistically achievable.

With anything this complex, single solutions by themselves won’t work. Even with multiple layers of defense, you can’t control nature; mitigation is the best you can achieve. Accepting that is hard for a lot of people.

Guess what else. Even if there’s a 100% effective vaccine, people are still going to catch this virus, get sick, and die from it for a few years at a minimum. It is also possible that the virus may have the staying power of the common cold.

All things we don’t know the answer to yet.

Well, you certainly won't qualify as a government COVID expert.

 

[CyberWolf]

I did read a report, I believe from Europe, that said although 25% of the population were smokers, only 3%-5% were smokers. It would seem that covid doesn't like smoke.

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A stogie a day, keeps the 'rona away?

Now there's some preventative care I can support!

 

[ZX9RCAM]

How is it determined that a vaccine is effective?
Do the test subjects get intentionally exposed to the disease?

 

[jrbfishn]

Test subjects would pretty much have to be exposed to known active cases or purposely given the virus.
oytherwise, they could just be part of the lucky 96% that have not been infected.

 

[oldag]

How is it determined that a vaccine is effective?
Do the test subjects get intentionally exposed to the disease?

Yes

 

[toddnjoyce]

How is it determined that a vaccine is effective?
Do the test subjects get intentionally exposed to the disease?

Some light reading on Malaria vaccine development. Same concepts apply.

Methods for Determining Vaccine Efficacy and Effectiveness and the Main Barriers to Developing a Fully Deployable Malaria Vaccine - Defining and Defeating the Intolerable Burden of Malaria III: Progress and Perspectives - NCBI Bookshelf

The past few years have witnessed the appearance of public-private partnerships and a significant increase of resources devoted to the development of malaria vaccines. Lessons have been learned on different approaches to the clinical development plan for a vaccine candidate, including different...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov