Ukraine invasion

[candcallen]

Insert giant popcorn emoji here.

 

[General Zod]

Some officials say putin has moved to Valdai (between Moscow and St Petersburg) while Peskov (press sec) says putin is still working at the Kremlin.

...which means he's not at either place, he's holed up on one of his dachas waiting for the smoke to clear and hoping he can come out looking like a conquering hero.

This is getting very...interesting. Putin's grasp seems to be slipping but Perrgozhin doesn't strike me as the type to be capable of running a country or of surrounding himself with people who can. Lots of instability coming, which is kind of scary considering Russia's nuclear arsenal. Even if it's poorly maintained and mostly decrepit, those warheads are still full of radioactive materials that would fetch a hefty price from some countries and organizations. If this turns into an unstable 'every man for himself" cluster, there's going to be a lot more to worry about in the world.

 

[candcallen]

<>

We’re just trying to understand?

<>

Who is this we you keep talking about?

 

[Kar98]

Wagner has taken more land in Russia in one day than the combined Russian forces took in Ukraine in 16 months. Cool cool.

 

[cycleguy2300]

...which means he's not at either place, he's holed up on one of his dachas waiting for the smoke to clear and hoping he can come out looking like a conquering hero.

This is getting very...interesting. Putin's grasp seems to be slipping but Perrgozhin doesn't strike me as the type to be capable of running a country or of surrounding himself with people who can. Lots of instability coming, which is kind of scary considering Russia's nuclear arsenal. Even if it's poorly maintained and mostly decrepit, those warheads are still full of radioactive materials that would fetch a hefty price from some countries and organizations. If this turns into an unstable 'every man for himself" cluster, there's going to be a lot more to worry about in the world.

Putler's personal plane has left Moscow and likely heading to Tver where he has a home.

Will update in a moment

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[leVieux]

Is this the work of the CIA ?

 

[General Zod]

Is this the work of the CIA ?

You think the CIA still has this much capability? It's not the 60s anymore. The CIA has turned inward to monitor and influence us, not monitor and influence them.

 

[candcallen]

...which means he's not at either place, he's holed up on one of his dachas waiting for the smoke to clear and hoping he can come out looking like a conquering hero.

This is getting very...interesting. Putin's grasp seems to be slipping but Perrgozhin doesn't strike me as the type to be capable of running a country or of surrounding himself with people who can. Lots of instability coming, which is kind of scary considering Russia's nuclear arsenal. Even if it's poorly maintained and mostly decrepit, those warheads are still full of radioactive materials that would fetch a hefty price from some countries and organizations. If this turns into an unstable 'every man for himself" cluster, there's going to be a lot more to worry about in the world.

You know Putin is in church praying the coup away. Being the devout corruptian he is.

Seriously it should be an interesting 24 hours. Either putin has the control and forces to stop a long military colum heading to Moscow or ?

 

[cycleguy2300]

List of losses from Oryx (OSINT) Wagner has lost one UAZ (kinda like a humvee)

Folks gathering around Wagner I'm Rostov declaring their love for what they are doing for them and their homeland. Wagner (I am pretty sure) responds saying if you respect us and the movement keep it peaceful


Wagner will have logistical difficulty if this isn't over quickly but there se3ms to be a good chance putin could lose control/fall within 24h. Putins' personal air raft took off went NW and left radar.

Wagner is about 2h drive away from Moscow and has polished past this roadblock (suspect Oka river)

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[Kar98]

Is this the work of the CIA ?

They wish.

 

[General Zod]

You know Putin is in church praying the coup away. Being the devout corruptian he is.

Seriously it should be an interesting 24 hours. Either putin has the control and forces to stop a long military colum heading to Moscow or ?

One factor nobody's mentioned...all the Russian crime organizations. Putin has effectively been the "godfather" since not long after he took power. Where will they fall in all of this?

 

[cycleguy2300]

Is this the work of the CIA ?

No.

Zero indication of any outside party.

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[Kar98]

List of losses from Oryx (OSINT) Wagner has lost one UAZ (kinda like a humvee)

More like a Nissan Frontier:

 

[Kar98]

One factor nobody's mentioned...all the Russian crime organizations. Putin has effectively been the "godfather" since not long after he took power. Where will they fall in all of this?

Excuse you, I've been banging on about this the entire time, to wit, that in Russia, government, organized crime and business are one and the same.

 

[cycleguy2300]

Excuse you, I've been banging on about this the entire time, to wit, that in Russia, government, organized crime and business are one and the same.

If Prigozhin is as anti-corruption as he claims, (he could just be anti-military corruption) he won't have many friends there, but many of the mafia have their power and ability to work solely because they are protected.

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[cycleguy2300]

More like a Nissan Frontier:

Jeep, humvee, nissan...

I wanted to try to bring one home. They are super cool trucks

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[General Zod]

Excuse you, I've been banging on about this the entire time, to wit, that in Russia, government, organized crime and business are one and the same.

And excuse you, I'm wondering in the context of this new instability. I'm well aware of the intermixing of organized crime and government over there - hence my mention of Putin effectively being the "godfather" of it all.

So what happens when the Boss of Bosses is deposed - do the other families sit it out? Do they get involved? Do they work to destabilize the usurper?

What happens if the Boss of Bosses survives the attempt? Now he's shown more weakness - does the next attempt come from within the mafia? Do they rally around him since things have been good for them these past couple of decades? Do they decide they're no longer beholden to him and start jockeying for more power?

I haven't seen you raising these questions.

 

[angel71rs]

Reports of prison uprisings, including moscow detention center, Wagner freeing prisoners in captured territory inviting them to join the movement. Civilians cleaning out store shelves prepping for chaos.

Meanwhile putler...

 

[Kar98]

What happens if the Boss of Bosses survives the attempt? Now he's shown more weakness - does the next attempt come from within the mafia? Do they rally around him since things have been good for them these past couple of decades? Do they decide they're no longer beholden to him and start jockeying for more power?

I haven't seen you raising these questions.

Because I'm too busy laughing my ass off right about now.
As the Good Book says: if you aim for the king, you best not miss. And what does typically happen if the capo di capo gets removed? Everybody calmly sits it out, or everyone is trying to scramble for a larger bit of the cake?

Like I said somewhere on pg 4 of this thread, when this is all over, there's gonna be two Russian city states, Greater Moscow and Nishni Novgorod, and everybody else in the area of the former RSFR will revert to tribal warfare. Maybe the Mongols and the Ottomans will want to make moves too.

 

[General Zod]

Because I'm too busy laughing my ass off right about now.
As the Good Book says: if you aim for the king, you best not miss. And what does typically happen if the capo di capo gets removed? Everybody calmly sits it out, or everyone is trying to scramble for a larger bit of the cake?

Like I said somewhere on pg 4 of this thread, when this is all over, there's gonna be two Russian city states, Greater Moscow and Nishni Novgorod, and everybody else in the area of the former RSFR will revert to tribal warfare. Maybe the Mongols and the Ottomans will want to make moves too.

You can bet the Georgians and Chechens are doing some serious contemplation of next moves right now.