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  • toddnjoyce

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    Presence of What?

    Presence of indicators or evidence such as a widely scattered debris field. Visible Evidence of a fire. An emergency declaration to ATC as a start.

    I’m not convinced weather was a primary factor. Even though there was some weather in the area that *much* later bloomed into storms, the type of convective activity associated with the amount of wind shear necessary for a 12000 fpm descent at 6000 ft over several miles just isn’t very probable

    If I get bored, I’ll look up the wind shear escape calculations.
     
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    toddnjoyce

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    Sorry. Thought it was the jail video
    23,000 take offs and landings, is that alot?
    I havent seen the other video but in this one it appears to be a perpendicular 90* decent.
    Radio yesterday said #3 was recovered. Back to search mode 100% for the boxes now.
    90K hours on airframe. Is that a lot? I dont know what they are rated for.

    I'll try to hit that all here:

    Video sourced from a security camera at a school in Anahuac, shows only a second of Atlas Air flight 3591. It appeared to be traveling at a steep angle toward the ground according to this by whoever owns click2houston.

    Unconfirmed mishap aircraft history
    - 1992 build, passenger configuration for China Southern Airlines
    - 1997 puchased by Lan Chile (now LATAM)
    - Unknown date CIT Leasing, various operators
    -2016 Atlas Air Cargo, freighter reconfig
    -approximate hours 90K hours total time, 28,000 cycles (unverified).

    In B767 terms, it's middle aged. More technical discussion below.

    When you get to airline-size/regulated aircraft, the yardstick for measuring is cycles. That's the number of times it started up and flew. The FAA has a thing called limits of viability (LOV), which is not necessarily a hard stop for an airframe, but it's a pretty intensive inspection to allow continued service. For the B767 series, the most restrictive LOV is 60K cycles and 150K hours. This particular airframe isn't unusual and had quite a bit of useful LOV left.

    Maintenance is the biggest variable, but in the grand scheme of things the freighter conversion in 2016 should have id’d any structural concerns.
     
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    toddnjoyce

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    Great technical info, thanks. They really got into those numbers when the 737 blew its top in Hawaii but I had forgotten them.

    No radio comm's, all we got left is waitin on boxes now, just waitin.

    What this video does show is the major airframe components appear to be intact. The quality is low, but there appears also to be a motion around the aircraft’s longitudinal axis, which when turned 90*, becomes the vertical image seen in the school video.

    It could just be the visual effect, too.

    That rolling action could indicate either intentional aileron or rudder input or a stall departing to spin. What strikes me is the procedure for wind shear escape is set takeoff power/go around configuration or if hand-flying (I don’t know Atlas’ ops specs for hand flying) full power and takeoff pitch for weight. There’s probably a good 8-10 seconds of spool up for the motors to produce full power, but these guys were keeping the speed up for turbulence penetration according the the flight aware data. It seems they were truck along at 240kts, pushing the 250kts speed limit inside the Houston airspace.

    That procedure doesn’t jive with unusual attitude recovery, which is pull power, neutralize the controls, stabilize and recover as required.

    Which is slightly different from stall recovery, which is lower the nose, full throttle, opposite rudder input if a wing is dipped.
     
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