How many LTC folks are actively carrying around you?

[busykngt]

I've often wondered in any large, adult group gathering of a general cross section of Texans, how many could you expect to be 'packing heat'?

For instance, not taking into account venues where carrying is prohibited (like Pro-sporting events) and also dismissing venues which might artificially inflate the numbers (like pistol or rifle matches), I have done a little "back of the envelope" figuring. And based on rough Texas population numbers for those aged 21 and over, up to perhaps 80 or so (kinda figuring those in their 90s aren't generally doing their own shopping or what have you), I come up with a rough maximum of the population that COULD be carrying is around seven percent (that's 7 people out of 100) that are statically eligible to carry.

But knowing that just because DPS reports those with "active" licenses, doesn't mean in any given group of a hundred shoppers at WalMart (as an example), mean that all licensed LTC'ers are actually carrying. I'm kinda thinking the true number of folks that could actually participate in an "active shooter" situation might be as few as three or four (out of a 100).

Who's got a different take on this and what percentage do you think could be around you at any random time?
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What we need is more unemployed politicians.

 

[DubiousDan]

I'm not out and about that much so I've only seen two, in San Antonio, since January.

 

[easy rider]

Here in Odessa, maybe slightly higher. Probably depends on per capita of liberals (those that are in their safe bubbles) as to how many.

 

[rman]

i barely see any in my travels. I live in Ft Worth, travel to HTX ATX and SATX pretty heavily.
Was in Amarillo and Lubbock this week and didn't "notice" any.

I sometimes carry while swimming, pretty much as often as I can.

Sent from my SIG Sauer

 

[easy rider]

I would say that at least 95% conceal around here, as do I 95% of the time, so noticing could be a problem. I just know that a fair percentage in my area do pack.

 

[busykngt]

That's a good point about the large Texas cities (with their leanings toward the left) verses the smaller country towns and rural areas. And Dan, I'm with you; I tend to not make extra trips out unless it's really called for. But today was such a day - a trip to Walmart to kinda stock up, is what got me wondering about that question again. (And yes, I was packin'...of course).
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What we need is more unemployed politicians.

 

[Shotgun Jeremy]

I know at church, half of the guys there carry, and a few women. Then, among my friends, I have a few that carry unlicensed. So, it kinda depends on where you're at.

 

[busykngt]

While it may not always be true, my underlying question (at least in my own mind) was predicted on not noticing or being able to tell, if someone was concealed carrying or not. That's why I more-or-less decided to look at what statistically might be most likely (not so much what might be physically possible to observe).
Not sure I take much solace in knowing [thinking] that out of fifty people, only one (or maybe, two) might also be in a position to defend themselves or their immediate family out in public.
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What we need is more unemployed politicians.

 

[TxStetson]

It's hard to say. My closest aqaintences are usually carrying, but that's the nature of the beast. It's not like I socialize with many leftist tree hugging snowflake democrats. I'm a pretty consistant people watcher, and I hardly ever notice anyone carrying. And since I doubt everyone is an expert at concealing, there doesn't seem to be that many carrying around here.

 

[txinvestigator]

I'm not out and about that much so I've only seen two, in San Antonio, since January.

He is not referring to open carry

 

[DubiousDan]

He is not referring to open carry

I see that now.

 

[Dawico]

I would guess your estimate of 3-4% across the board is probably pretty close.

Because Lampasas is a small country town I want to say it is higher but we have a very low crime rate so I believe that pushes the number down. I still would guess 3-4%.

 

[Nightwatch]

I've only seen two open carrying since it began. I see one or two concealed a day, and know dozens who do but conceal real well. I also know many licensed who seldom carry...for laziness and believing in fairies' protection.

 

[Charlie]

If I go to town for something, I usually see a couple of people open carrying somewhere, (lumber yard, Gibsons, restaurants, etc.).

 

[majormadmax]

Again, he said "carrying" not "openly carrying!"

Secondly, it's not as much as most people think. In total, there are 937,419 active license (CHL/LTC now) holders in Texas—about 3.6 percent of the state's population—according to the records as of 27 Jan 2016 (the latest statistics I could find). I would expect at best maybe half (but more likely as little as a third or even a quarter) carry on a regular basis, so you're looking at anywhere between one in every fifty to one in every hundred individuals on average.

And as stated, that all depends on where you are. I suspect rates in Austin would be lower, and in rural Texas they'd be higher; but there's no hard/fast rule about that as I've seen some of the most ridiculous "no handgun" rules trying to be applied in places you'd never expect (i.e. the claim that the entire Rio Media General Store is an official USPS facility because there is a small area in the back that operations as a contracted post office location).

So, given your Walmart example, most stores around here usually have between an estimated 300-400 customers in them so I figure that would be about 10-20 people at best actually armed the vast majority of which are doing so concealed. I as always will be the anomaly in that I will be one of the rare individual that is exercising my right to carry openly!

 

[Charlie]

Exercise keeps one healthy!

 

[busykngt]

M3, your approach is, in fact, the same logic I was {am} trying to use. However, I got a little different numbers than you suggest. For instance, the DPS website shows (as of Dec. 2016), 1,150,754 and another 3,676 instructors (via their Reports & Statistics / Demographics page); and in any case, those numbers are a year & half old - likely higher by now. I also took the Texas population numbers from a Wikipedia page - however, the data was being quoted from the U.S. Census and projected forward by a UT Austin demographic study. I subtracted out all the "under age 21" population and, as I mentioned, some of the real "old folks". I think this reduced the initial pool of potentially eligible Texans down to just over sixteen million (as I recall). So that's how I got to the maximum of roughly 7% being at least eligible to be considered as potentially carrying.
The big "unknown" to me and admittedly quite subjective value is, how many of those folks who are licensed, elect to NOT carry at any given time. My guess was overall, roughly half of the total pool of licensees may not be packin' at any given time, out in public. (Maybe that's too high) So that's how I ended up at the 3 - 4% number.
--
What we need is more unemployed politicians.

 

[DubiousDan]

My guess was overall, roughly half of the total pool of licensees may not be packin' at any given time, out in public. (Maybe that's too high) So that's how I ended up at the 3 - 4% number.

A few years ago I was pulled over by a LEO and when I gave him by LTC he asked me if I was armed. I replied yes and he commented that most of the people he pulled over with LTCs were not armed. I thought that was interesting and sad. Why go through the trouble and expense of a LTC and not take advantage of that privileged (which should be a right).

 

[jrbfishn]

M3, your approach is, in fact, the same logic I was {am} trying to use. However, I got a little different numbers than you suggest. For instance, the DPS website shows (as of Dec. 2016), 1,150,754 and another 3,676 instructors (via their Reports & Statistics / Demographics page); and in any case, those numbers are a year & half old - likely higher by now. I also took the Texas population numbers from a Wikipedia page - however, the data was being quoted from the U.S. Census and projected forward by a UT Austin demographic study. I subtracted out all the "under age 21" population and, as I mentioned, some of the real "old folks". I think this reduced the initial pool of potentially eligible Texans down to just over sixteen million (as I recall). So that's how I got to the maximum of roughly 7% being at least eligible to be considered as potentially carrying.
The big "unknown" to me and admittedly quite subjective value is, how many of those folks who are licensed, elect to NOT carry at any given time. My guess was overall, roughly half of the total pool of licensees may not be packin' at any given time, out in public. (Maybe that's too high) So that's how I ended up at the 3 - 4% number.
--
What we need is more unemployed politicians.

Did you factor in the number felons and those with other disqualifications? Probably 10-15% of adults can not legally carry or own a firearm.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G870A using Tapatalk

 

[busykngt]

As I begin to "over think" this whole scenario, I note that I did not effectively reduce the "total eligible population" numbers of Texas by those who are felons, incarcerated, mentally ill, or otherwise would not be allowed to have a LTC. I haven't done any detailed research on those items but felons and those currently incarcerated may reduce the population by another ~600K and who knows what impact mental illnesses, DUI convictions, etc. would have? Maybe, all together my starting number should have been, more like 15 million (rather than the ~16 million I used). But even then, the total LTC population would only be moved from just under 7% to roughly 7.5%. So, I'm not sure that would significantly change my initial take that no more than about four (if that many), out of a random population of one hundred, could be expected to be carrying. This still strikes me as being a dismally small number who are actively exercising their right (2A) of self-defense.
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What we need is more unemployed politicians.