China, guncotton and the future of powder prices

[TexMex247]

So I responded to another thread here about stocking up ahead of the election. I figured buy now while it's there. I read months ago about China ceasing exportation of gun cotton to the US and Europe. Also observed a steady rise in the price per pound of several great powders. Luckily I'm stacked deep and bought most of what I have a decade ago.

Just wondering if any industry insiders can confirm what I think is coming. I heard Alliant isn't shipping anything and I know RE15 is the top choice for the MK118 Rd. If nitrocellulose is truly in short supply how long is the lag before it hits the civilian market. Ammo seems to be reasonable right now and maybe that's why it's not flying off the shelves yet but I'm thinking about a year out, it's going to hit like a ton of bricks.

Open to comments, opinions and hopefully some insight from our commercial reloaders here.

 

[alternative]

So I responded to another thread here about stocking up ahead of the election. I figured buy now while it's there. I read months ago about China ceasing exportation of gun cotton to the US and Europe. Also observed a steady rise in the price per pound of several great powders. Luckily I'm stacked deep and bought most of what I have a decade ago.

Just wondering if any industry insiders can confirm what I think is coming. I heard Alliant isn't shipping anything and I know RE15 is the top choice for the MK118 Rd. If nitrocellulose is truly in short supply how long is the lag before it hits the civilian market. Ammo seems to be reasonable right now and maybe that's why it's not flying off the shelves yet but I'm thinking about a year out, it's going to hit like a ton of bricks.

Open to comments, opinions and hopefully some insight from our commercial reloaders here.

I heard it takes 25# of powder per 155 shell.

 

[Rusty Gun]

Like you I stocked up during the last administration when things were cheap and plentiful. I added a comment so I can see the rest of the responses.

 

[Wiliamr]

you say MK 118 - The only MK 118 I know is the Mk118 HEAT released from the MK 20 Rockeye cluster bomb. Did you mean M 118 Long Range (LR) 7.62 X 51mm round? That uses depending on year of manufacture. WC 750 or more recently IMR 4064 or Re15.

 

[Gordo]

That's why I bought a few jugs of Reloader 15...

 

[TexMex247]

That's why I bought a few jugs of Reloader 15...

Smart move. I've got 1.5 lbs of it and that's all. I did recently get 24lbs of FSP-749. Russian surplus powder from the guy who was arrested a while back for unlicensed explosives. Lol. I didn't buy from him personally but I was wondering why it dried up. It loads more like IMR3031 than RE15 but it's showing some promise. First time loading blind but I worked up and think it's viable at around 38-39gr.

It is the M118 I was referring to.

 

[DougC]

Read more at AmmoLand blog

The recent decision by China to halt the export of two critical components —nitrocellulose and antimony— has raised alarms within the U.S. ammunition manufacturing industry and among defense experts. These materials are indispensable in the production of propellant powder and primers, and their restriction threatens to create significant supply chain disruptions.

China’s dominance in the production of antimony and nitrocellulose cannot be overstated. As the world’s largest producer of antimony, China accounts for nearly half of global production and supplies 63% of U.S. antimony imports. Antimony plays a vital role in the defense industry, from armor-piercing ammunition to night vision goggles and precision optics. Nitrocellulose, or “guncotton,” is essential for making propellant powder used in ammunition.

Without these core materials, the U.S. ammunition supply chain is left extremley vulnerable.

China imposed export controls on graphite and rare earth materials in 2023, impacting industries from semiconductors to electric vehicles. Now, the defense and ammunition sectors are bracing for the impact of these new restrictions.