When do you think China is going to invade and take Taiwan ?

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  • LaborLawPaul

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    Not really. It's a contributing factor, sure, but American Millennials are a thing. Most of the rest of the world didn't have a miniature GenY/Millennial birth boom. It's their existence that makes American so much younger and stronger, demographically, than our global peers.

    Now we just need to convince every adult under 40 to pair off and have 3 kids because...
    ...yeah, overall that's true.

    We're in better shape than any other rich, developed country in the Western world. We're poised to have nothing but pity for the Chinese and the Russians in 20 years.

    But none of this will last forever.

    Demographic determinism may not be absolute but it'll sure bite you in the butt if you ignore it.
    We would be fine demographically but for one Supreme Court decision and the willingness of millions of women to choose that "option."
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    CyberWolf

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    ...We're in better shape than any other rich, developed country in the Western world. We're poised to have nothing but pity for the Chinese and the Russians in 20 years.

    But none of this will last forever.

    Demographic determinism may not be absolute but it'll sure bite you in the butt if you ignore it.

    I believe that where One goes, the rest are likely to follow in relatively short-order. Zoom out...

    That said, what if there were other options/paths which would allow for persistence, but which simply haven't presented themselves yet? At what point is a critcal-mass of Humanity sufficiently primed by perspective and circumstance to recognize any such alternatives even if they were presented plain-as-day? What threshold of discomfort/societal-deconstruction is required to make aforementioned 'critical-mass' receptive to collective adoption?

    Who knows? These are just questions, perhaps the answers will present themselves at some point...

    One thing I do know - and this has been one of the most difficult and profound observations/realizations I've ever reached, for a number of reasons (paraphrased concept): "The 'Flow' cannot be forced, it can only be ridden. One can choose to 'ride' it as best one can, or be pushed by it uncontrollably"

    ^(yes, I realize how that sounds. I believe it to be an accurate statement, nevertheless...)
     

    candcallen

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    Let's look at history.

    If only there was a parallel where the USA had a massive trade relationship with a like power looking to expand itself. One where it was thought they would never jeopardize said relationship nor could survive without it. The relationship continues even after punitive actions by the us because of their activities.

    They would never be stupid enough to cross the line that would surely lead to a massive war.

    Hmmm

    Those were the exact parameters and thoughts untill about 8Am December 7th 1941.

    Appeasement always leads to war.

    Ask the servile cuck Nevil Chamberlain.
     

    Axxe55

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    Not really. It's a contributing factor, sure, but American Millennials are a thing. Most of the rest of the world didn't have a miniature GenY/Millennial birth boom. It's their existence that makes American so much younger and stronger, demographically, than our global peers.

    Now we just need to convince every adult under 40 to pair off and have 3 kids because...
    ...yeah, overall that's true.

    We're in better shape than any other rich, developed country in the Western world. We're poised to have nothing but pity for the Chinese and the Russians in 20 years.

    But none of this will last forever.

    Demographic determinism may not be absolute but it'll sure bite you in the butt if you ignore it.

    I'd like to add a bit of a rebuttal to your post, based upon some personal observations.

    I think one thing that sets the Millennial's/ Gen "Y" from a few of the previous generations is a lack of ethics, and possibly even some measure of morals. Many are afraid of hard work. I seriously doubt many even understand the concept. They want a job and a paycheck, but don't want to work for it. Their idea of getting things is somebody giving it to them, or maxing out a credit card. They are a generation of, "I want it now, and I'm not waiting." Add in, I seriously doubt many are joining any branch of the military like the previous generations either. (That is simply an opinion, not based on factual evidence.)

    Such generations pumping out two or three children, is IMO not necessarily a good idea, since many of them are incapable of caring for themselves, much less children they bring into the world.

    My thoughts are, if we positioned out Millennials against other countries Millennials, how would they stand up?
     

    benenglish

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    My thoughts are, if we positioned out Millennials against other countries Millennials, how would they stand up?
    Most other countries (at least comparable, rich, developed Western nations) don't have a distinct Millennial population bump in their demographic profile.

    Badmouth Millennials all you want but at least they exist and they buy stuff. They're helping keep the American economy in better shape than other countries whose populations of consumer-aged citizens are either falling or about to fall off a cliff.

    To address your other point about their suitability as parents, I don't think we can make that judgement call. There are too many variables. Sometimes problems (e.g., lousy parents) create obstacles for their children to overcome which creates stronger children with better problem-solving skills. The Great Depression did that to an entire generation. Heck, if you want to chew on a mind-blowing fact, consider this - the Venn diagram of "great artists" and "children with at least one parent who committed suicide when the child was young" has the two groups overlapping to an astonishingly high degree. If all the Millennials in the U.S. just decided to up and have children tomorrow, there's no way to predict how well those kids would turn out.

    However, one thing we can predict with complete confidence is that if Millennials got busy having lots of kids, in 20-30 years America would have a new source of low-end labor and new consumers to help fuel the economy.

    My only point was that the long-term economic health of the U.S. is bolstered if more Americans decide to have more kids. The U.S. has a substantial population of Millennials who could perform that function at an economically productive rate. Most other places (most importantly for this thread, China) do not.
     

    Sasquatch

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    Don’t forget that for several more decades, there’s a huge male:female imbalance. It’s going to be interesting how that plays out over time.

    "Brother-husbands" ? One chick, multiple dicks? Women could become nothing but reproduction machines if it got bad there. Or they look outward, fight wars, kidnap women and force them to pump out half-Chinese babies.
     

    oldag

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    I'd like to add a bit of a rebuttal to your post, based upon some personal observations.

    I think one thing that sets the Millennial's/ Gen "Y" from a few of the previous generations is a lack of ethics, and possibly even some measure of morals. Many are afraid of hard work. I seriously doubt many even understand the concept. They want a job and a paycheck, but don't want to work for it. Their idea of getting things is somebody giving it to them, or maxing out a credit card. They are a generation of, "I want it now, and I'm not waiting." Add in, I seriously doubt many are joining any branch of the military like the previous generations either. (That is simply an opinion, not based on factual evidence.)

    Such generations pumping out two or three children, is IMO not necessarily a good idea, since many of them are incapable of caring for themselves, much less children they bring into the world.

    My thoughts are, if we positioned out Millennials against other countries Millennials, how would they stand up?

    Our millennials against most of the world's millennials other than perhaps Europe (China, Russia, etc.) will be ugly. And not in a good way.
     

    oldag

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    Most other countries (at least comparable, rich, developed Western nations) don't have a distinct Millennial population bump in their demographic profile.

    Badmouth Millennials all you want but at least they exist and they buy stuff. They're helping keep the American economy in better shape than other countries whose populations of consumer-aged citizens are either falling or about to fall off a cliff.

    To address your other point about their suitability as parents, I don't think we can make that judgement call. There are too many variables. Sometimes problems (e.g., lousy parents) create obstacles for their children to overcome which creates stronger children with better problem-solving skills. The Great Depression did that to an entire generation. Heck, if you want to chew on a mind-blowing fact, consider this - the Venn diagram of "great artists" and "children with at least one parent who committed suicide when the child was young" has the two groups overlapping to an astonishingly high degree. If all the Millennials in the U.S. just decided to up and have children tomorrow, there's no way to predict how well those kids would turn out.

    I must respectfully disagree.

    The Great Depression kids still had morals and ethics instilled. Most were raised in the church (supporting the aforementioned). Their parents were parents and did not abdicate that responsibility. Discipline was part of being raised.

    Of course it is possible for any given kid to overcome poor or no parents. But the odds are stacked against them and the bad outcomes far, far outnumber the good. We cannot take the exception as the rule.

    Merely having a body count does not ensure that America will continue to exist or to uphold the values that made her great.
     

    benenglish

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    If that works out beyond their wildest dreams, it will require two full generations (minimum) for China to undo the damage done to their demographic profile by ~35 years under the one-child policy. To bounce back, they would need to pump out as many children as possible right now, wait for them to grow up, and then those kids would have to all have as many children as possible.

    That's 40 years, minimum. In the meantime, their huge percentage of boomers will age into needing lots of expensive care before the first generation of new births reaches maturity. Unless they can somehow convince a few hundred million old folks to commit suicide, this whole situation will most likely tank their economy long, long before anything can be done.

    They're not hopeless if they take lots of lessons from the Japanese who are managing their older-than-anyone-else population with fair success. Japan has managed to remain economically viable by moving much of their economy off-shore. (How many Japanese-branded cars and trucks are actually assembled in the U.S. from lots of U.S. parts?) If China emulates the Japanese they may come out OK. But that China would have to be a very different one from the one that currently exists, the one ruled by a paranoid CCP.
     

    benenglish

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    Merely having a body count does not ensure that America will continue to exist ...
    It sorta does. America is its people and as long as they are here in reasonable numbers, the U.S. will exist...barring a complete breakdown of civil society that fractures the nation. That outcome, I believe, is where China is headed. In the U.S., most citizens still think of themselves as Americans. We may talk smack about Yankees and Left-Coasters but they're still our countrymen. After 9/11, plenty of southerners were inspired to sign on with the military. They didn't have an attitude of "Well, New York got bombed but I don't care because they're not really American." Even today, with all our internal strife, if some foreign power bombed Chicago I have full faith that Texans, Californians, and New Yorkers would all scream in unison for the punishment of the invaders.

    The Chinese aren't that way. The Han Chinese in the north consider themselves the only true Chinese and wouldn't really care, in their heart of hearts, if everything from Shanghai going south decided to break off and maintain just a sort of in-name-only loose federation with the north, with Beijing. That's sorta the way China functioned for all its history until Mao.

    I'm not saying that all of China wouldn't respond to an attack. They would. But they would do it for the same reason they do everything - because the entire place is ruled by the Han people in the north who impose their rule via pure despotism. Systems like that don't inspire loyalty to flow in any direction.

    A unified Chinese identity is an illusion, one maintained by the Han-run CCP and imposed by force on the rest of China.

    America, OTOH, isn't as united as it once was but it's still mostly made up of people who want to be a part of it and will mostly stick together in the face of a real threat.

    That statement has been tested before and the U.S. passed. There were plenty of Nazi sympathizers in the U.S. prior to Pearl Harbor. They held gigantic rallies and parades all over the place. Still, when Pearl was attacked, they most all shut up, signed up, and fought for their country. I think the same thing would happen today.
    ... or to uphold the values that made her great.
    And here is where you have a perfectly valid point.

    Everything our forefathers created can go to hell if our people abandon our (previously almost universally-) shared principles. I don't see that happening in my lifetime. There are still a majority of people in every state of the Union who consider themselves American.

    No, if America falls I expect it to be by degrees, taking a long, long time.

    To get back to the thread topic, though, China could come apart at the seams in a matter of months if all the right wrong things happened at the same time.

    One of those wrong things would be for them to openly, militarily attack Taiwan.

    That's why I think the military option won't be employed, even if Biden is in the White House, sending signals that the U.S. wouldn't interfere. The Japanese almost certainly would and even Biden couldn't abandon the Japanese if they got into a shooting war with China.
     

    Axxe55

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    Most other countries (at least comparable, rich, developed Western nations) don't have a distinct Millennial population bump in their demographic profile.

    Badmouth Millennials all you want but at least they exist and they buy stuff. They're helping keep the American economy in better shape than other countries whose populations of consumer-aged citizens are either falling or about to fall off a cliff.

    To address your other point about their suitability as parents, I don't think we can make that judgement call. There are too many variables. Sometimes problems (e.g., lousy parents) create obstacles for their children to overcome which creates stronger children with better problem-solving skills. The Great Depression did that to an entire generation. Heck, if you want to chew on a mind-blowing fact, consider this - the Venn diagram of "great artists" and "children with at least one parent who committed suicide when the child was young" has the two groups overlapping to an astonishingly high degree. If all the Millennials in the U.S. just decided to up and have children tomorrow, there's no way to predict how well those kids would turn out.

    However, one thing we can predict with complete confidence is that if Millennials got busy having lots of kids, in 20-30 years America would have a new source of low-end labor and new consumers to help fuel the economy.

    My only point was that the long-term economic health of the U.S. is bolstered if more Americans decide to have more kids. The U.S. has a substantial population of Millennials who could perform that function at an economically productive rate. Most other places (most importantly for this thread, China) do not.

    Some good input that I was looking for, or at least thoughts from a different perspective.

    Like I said, more or less just my own personal observations of this and simply an opinion.

    I do always enjoy your input, because you put lots of thought into them.
     
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