Many of russia's (supposed) strengths are their nukes (both land and navy based) which in an existential fight against the USA would, even this day, be an incredible threat.How much of this “everything” had people convinced that Russias military rivaled ours just a year and a half ago? Who says the Russians view this as a failed war? Do you have any knowledge that whoever you think will replace Putin views this as a failed war?
And wokeness is gutting ours.like russian corruption gutting their war readiness...
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Let's see...Lukashenko allegedly in critical condition after meeting with putler. If he did get a dose, will putler manage to install a stoogier stooge who will send Belarus troops to the meatgrinder, or will Belarus spin completely out of putler's control?
Putin Poisoning? Belarus dictator Luakashenko in critical condition in Moscow hospital, says opposition figure
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has been admitted to a hospital in Moscow, reported prominent opposition figure and former presidential candidate, Valery Tsepkalo, on Twitter on May 27.news.yahoo.com
Let's see...
Lukashenko gets very ill.
Attempted internal coup.
Russian troops rescue Belarus from the "Ukranian inspired coup" and install the "rightful leader" (Luk) who promptly dies.
His replacement does whatever Putin tells him to do.
I halfway agree. But the point is that listening to what “everything” says, is what led to a lot of misconceptions before, but now I’m supposed to believe those same people have it right? Are these the same people who are disseminating different sets of data publicly and privately? Is “everything” actually just coming from the same source?Many of russia's (supposed) strengths are their nukes (both land and navy based) which in an existential fight against the USA would, even this day, be an incredible threat.
I cannot recall off-hand anyone who had been able to predict russia's failures in logistics training, coordination or tactics before this war started, but several commentators (Perun is may be my favorite) have been able to explain what maybe should have been obvious. Science is much the same. Sometimes something happens we don't expect and maybe couldn't predict beforehand. It can be explained afterwards and in this case it illuminated things like russian corruption gutting their war readiness...
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But...but...but...some here say this doesn't happen...must be that white nationalist Trump up to his old games again...Let's see...
Lukashenko gets very ill.
Attempted internal coup.
Russian troops rescue Belarus from the "Ukranian inspired coup" and install the "rightful leader" (Luk) who promptly dies.
His replacement does whatever Putin tells him to do.
I think you're missing something.<>
OK, here goes:
I have kept relatively quiet on this b/c of respect for CycleGuy and his honest efforts to help, including a volunteer stint w/ the Ukrainian Military.
But, I have been in communication with some real students of this area for over 20 years, long before Putin made any extraterritorial move, including Crimea.
Those REAL experts have been predicting what we now see the entire time.
Yes, for over 20 years!
The US & NATO have been funding bioweapons development around the globe, ILLEGALLY, for decades, under guise of devising defensive methods.
Several US/NATO bioweapons labs were in Ukraine for years, somewhere b/t 3 & 300 of them. The Russians have been aware of them the entire time.
I and my experts are amazed by how many of y’all still believe the government & media line on this; when you KNOW they both LIE about everything.
Yes, native Russians in the Donbas did give Putin plausible excuse for invading; but the real CAUSE was/is increasing NATO incursions into areas of reasonable Russian desired hegemony.
While I’m at it, on another topic involving LIES; the entire 1960’s “Cuban Missile Crisis” was another orchestrated FRAUD, and JFK was no “Hero”.
HIs infamous PT-109 episode was a violation of orders and unwarranted deaths of his crew. He avoided a courts-martial only by being the Ambassador’s Son under a democrat Tyrant, “FDR”. The “JFK / Kruschev Showdown” was another theatrical event; it had all been pre-agreed to allow JFK to “save face”; but it let the Soviets to violate the centuries old “Monroe Doctrine”, and still does.
Please WAKE-UP; the “Ukraine War” is just one more big LIE in a long chain of LIES !
leVieux
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I'm not saying believe all anyone says, but reasonably trustworthy analysts can get something wrong (that Ukriane would be steamrolled) then look at what they know and look at what happened and see where they were in error and make some corrections.I halfway agree. But the point is that listening to what “everything” says, is what led to a lot of misconceptions before, but now I’m supposed to believe those same people have it right? Are these the same people who are disseminating different sets of data publicly and privately? Is “everything” actually just coming from the same source?
Yes, native Russians in the Donbas did give Putin plausible excuse for invading; but the real CAUSE was/is increasing NATO incursions into areas of reasonable Russian desired hegemony.
<>How strange, then, that Putin and his lieutenants have, at various times, let slip that the real CAUSE (as you put it, capitalization-wise) is Putin's desire to re-create the mythical "Greater Russia", encompassing all the territory of Tsarist Russia and the USSR combined. Hell, Putin even published a rambling, fanciful article on his alt-history take on how Russia was meant to have all that territory, how the people there all secretly want to be Russian, and how unfair it is that they're kept from Mother Russia's loving embrace.
Maybe you and your experts should listen less to Russian paranoia about NATO (after all, their idea of a "defensive alliance" was the Warsaw Pact, a defensive alliance that repeatedly invaded its own members) and spend more time looking at the validity of the various (and often contradictory) claims you're accepting from the aggressors.
<>
We have different opinions on this.
leVieux
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Once again, I half way agree with you. But you realize that you just pointed out that Russia has more that they can use than what they currently are using right? why do you think that the people you’re listening to who didn’t have a clear picture before suddenly do? You realize that ukraine is also relying on conscripts right? And that sending out people with very little, if any training due to their heavy losses has been a major problem for them for quite some time right?I'm not saying believe all anyone says, but reasonably trustworthy analysts can get something wrong (that Ukriane would be steamrolled) then look at what they know and look at what happened and see where they were in error and make some corrections.
Too many looked at raw numbers of spending and equipment and soldiers without looking at what those things looked like. Just like a chemical experiment where you get something unexpected, you often learn more than by getting the thing you hoped for.
Too much emphasis was placed on ru's military budget, without taking into consideration what it was being spent on. Submarines, nukes, ships and so far not been of substantial use and they are a HUGE part of the budget. Corruption was perhaps underestimated as well.
Ru's raw numbers of tanks failed to take into account readiness and crew training. Corruption caused problems here too
The proliferation of MANPADS largely negated the russian advantage of air power, which prevented CAS missions allowing anti-tank teams to operate more freely, handicapping russia's early advantages in armor and mobility.
Ru's logistics
russia pushes supplies to the front without regard for what is being requested. This is a robust and sound system that ensures the units get what they are expected to need. But lack flexibility to deal with changes on the ground and it runs on rail... russia does not "do" logistics with trucks. The inability of russia to get supplies to the front with trucks was a bit of a surprise and caused the huge road jams during the assault on Kyiv in 2022
Tactics
An army runs on its NCOs. Russia had and has very few "professional" enlisted ranks. They have conscripts and they have officers with very little in-between to teach shodily trained troops how combat works. Russia was also forced to rely heavily on their artillery advantage because of a lack of air superiority, the artillery advantage is still ru's by numbers (iirc) but Ukriane has range and precision advantages now allowing hits on logistics infrastructure like fuel and ammo dumps, barracks etc
Ukraine maximized their advantage in their budget by not having any foreign bases or peace keeping missions and was able to prepare for a fight on their turf.
It's not like people didn't know this stuff, they just assigned the wrong values to them when trying to figure out how it would shake out.
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Respectfully, I think you are operating from a different set of historical facts that color your opinion.<>
We have different opinions on this.
leVieux
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