Recession

[oldag]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/wall-streets-favorite-recession-indicator-flashing-red

The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted this week for the first time since April on fears that the Federal Reserve's aggressive approach to tackling the hottest inflation in four decades could lead to a sustained slowdown in growth. The phenomenon – which is rare – has been a historically accurate predictor of recessions.

 

[Darkpriest667]

most of the investment groups are prepared for a hike of 100 basis points. Thats going to put us firmly in recession territory.

 

[Havok1]

This is probably the first time I’ve ever heard the Feds approach called aggressive. The only reason everyone isn’t already calling it a recession is because it’s Biden instead of Trump.

I’m in the camp hoping for a 100 point hike later this week. But I’ll settle for 75.

 

[oldag]

Fed is moving too slowly in regard to decreasing money supply. We are heading for stagflation again, only this time Reagan isn't president and Volcker is retired. Could get really ugly.

Fed should hit hard, at least a couple of percent increase, and hope the initial pain is enough to stem inflation. These little increases will just drag things out.

 

[wakosama]

somebody's getting rich regardless.

 

[V-Tach]

The current "we check all the boxes except experience" crew will lead us to a depression.......

Recession of course will come first...........

Build back better plan is still being pushed.....keep spending assholes.............

 

[striker55]

The current "we check all the boxes except experience" crew will lead us to a depression.......

Recession of course will come first...........

Build back better plan is still being pushed.....keep spending assholes.............

Build back better, how about put it back the way you found it!

 

[TexasRedneck]

Yup - things are fixing to get REAL ugly. I can remember the 14-18% APR on MORTGAGES back in the 80's - it's looking like we'll see that again. All our vehicles are within 2 years old, and in 2 weeks, they'll all be paid for - so that aspect will be covered. Been on a "pay as you go" track for about 7 years now, and frankly I'm looking forward to some deals as folks try to shed stuff to alleviate the pain. Been selectively buying a few stocks here and there - nothing major, but trying to do a little cherry picking. Will continue buying into a falling market - what's going down WILL come back up. Sitting around with money parked in the bank during inflationary periods is foolish, IMO....get it out on the street like a cheap hooker and see what you can attract.

 

[dsgrey]

I remember the early 80s too and it was ugly. I also totaled a pickup and had to buy a new one. Interest rate was 13.5% on a 3 year note! Of course I was young without a lengthy credit history but still. I believe my first home purchase was in 1989 around 8.5% on a 30 year note but rates had calmed down by that point.

 

[oldag]

Fed increase of 0.75%. Not nearly enough.

Would be better to do a larger increase now, one big shock. Then avoid these shocks and upheaval every few months with small increases.

 

[Texasjack]

Any of you young folks want to see where this is going, just look at the economy during Jimmy Carter's administration. Rampant inflation, disappearing jobs, wage freezes, gasoline shortages, out of control spending - it's all happening again but faster with Biden.

 

[oldag]

Any of you young folks want to see where this is going, just look at the economy during Jimmy Carter's administration. Rampant inflation, disappearing jobs, wage freezes, gasoline shortages, out of control spending - it's all happening again but faster with Biden.

Sure do look similar...

 

[etmo]

3/4 of a point today
half a point last month

yup, anyone on Earth could tell you a democrat must be in the white house

 

[Prisondoc210]

Any of you young folks want to see where this is going, just look at the economy during Jimmy Carter's administration. Rampant inflation, disappearing jobs, wage freezes, gasoline shortages, out of control spending - it's all happening again but faster with Biden.

I can remember sitting in my father's car doing my homework waiting in gas station lines that were several blocks long. One of the local news radio stations would broadcast gasoline alerts telling people which stations had gas .

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[Havok1]

Fed increase of 0.75%. Not nearly enough.

Would be better to do a larger increase now, one big shock. Then avoid these shocks and upheaval every few months with small increases.

I’m at least glad they didn’t do .5 just because they had previously said .75 was off the table. Still a long way to go. Hopefully we won’t see anything less than this for a while.

 

[striker55]

I can remember sitting in my father's car doing my homework waiting in gas station lines that were several blocks long. One of the local news radio stations would broadcast gasoline alerts telling people which stations had gas .

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Remember odd even days at the gas pump?

 

[Prisondoc210]

Remember odd even days at the gas pump?

I sure do.

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[V-Tach]

People aren't slowing down on spending......yet......tourist dollars haven't dropped yet with sales tax revenues still on the rise for our local tourist towns.....It's a barometer I watch as we get monthly sales tax info reported in the local paper. When I paid sales tax monthly, we would also get the breakdown of who got what %....

Hotels and motels are still full on weekends and the local fishing guides are having no problem with getting customers....restaurants are full, and local annual fundraising events are going strong....

My point is other than things missing off the shelves at the stores with higher prices, gas being higher, people are still spending and not cutting back in a noticeable way......

Do people have the extra cash to offset the increases or are they maxing out their credit cards?

 

[Havok1]

People aren't slowing down on spending......yet......tourist dollars haven't dropped yet with sales tax revenues still on the rise for our local tourist towns.....It's a barometer I watch as we get monthly sales tax info reported in the local paper. When I paid sales tax monthly, we would also get the breakdown of who got what %....

Hotels and motels are still full on weekends and the local fishing guides are having no problem with getting customers....restaurants are full, and local annual fundraising events are going strong....

My point is other than things missing off the shelves at the stores with higher prices, gas being higher, people are still spending and not cutting back in a noticeable way......

Do people have the extra cash to offset the increases or are they maxing out their credit cards?

Retail sales slowed in may. Atlanta Fed reduced Q2 GDP predictions to 0. Savings rates are decreasing despite Bidens teleprompter saying otherwise. Wholesale is seeing over 10% inflation. Even though the bottom hasn’t completely fallen out of the economy yet, it’s heading that way no matter how many fishing trips people are booking today. The “future” that people keep saying the recession will happen in is running out quick.

 

[Sasquatch]

Do people have the extra cash to offset the increases or are they maxing out their credit cards?

Cash-rich people aren't noticing a huge difficulty yet.

A lot of people are maxing their cards and are going to be in real trouble in a year or two. Bad times are coming.

Good for the touristy businesses for now - they should enjoy it while its still coming in, because sadly sooner rather than later, their businesses are going to take a huge hit.

Eventually its going to be only the wealthy doing things like going out to eat, visiting touristy places, hiring fishing guides, or even filling their tank all the way. I wish I'd traded in my 2016 Toyota on a 2021 Toyota when they came out and were semi-available because all passenger cars in Toyota's lineup from 21 onward are hybrid. Instead of 18mpg, I'd be getting closer to 40. Can't afford a new car now, even if they were readily available.