Lynx Defense

Eyes south into the gulf.

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  • candcallen

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    Jul 23, 2011
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    Little Elm
    Another one forming. Should know more when it pops by the end of the weekend on timing but theres a good chance the texas coast will be getting something.


    Prepare.
     

    F350-6

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    Can't be Vicky. She's drifting SW and won't be anywhere close this weekend. Must be talking about the current disturbance in the Southern gulf that may form a Hurricane in the next 2-5 days. But I don't think there's a track on that yet is there? Just hanging out around Mexico is all I've seen on it.
     

    jordanmills

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    Can't be Vicky. She's drifting SW and won't be anywhere close this weekend. Must be talking about the current disturbance in the Southern gulf that may form a Hurricane in the next 2-5 days. But I don't think there's a track on that yet is there? Just hanging out around Mexico is all I've seen on it.
    No center of rotation so there's nothing for the models to track.

    But yes we need to keep an eye on it. The low moving over N Texas might cause us some grief with regard to it.
     

    jordanmills

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    It looks like current models (general, not cyclone tracking) have it meandering around south and coming ashore south of Brownsville. Not that we shouldn't keep an eye on it.

    gth_full.png
     

    candcallen

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    Little Elm
    Can't be Vicky. She's drifting SW and won't be anywhere close this weekend. Must be talking about the current disturbance in the Southern gulf that may form a Hurricane in the next 2-5 days. But I don't think there's a track on that yet is there? Just hanging out around Mexico is all I've seen on it.
    Yep. It's supposed to in an unorganized and lazy way slowly meander north then pop into a named storm by the end of the weekend. It will then move north ? So somewheres in the gulf coast probably texas. Chance of formation in 4 to 5 days 75plus%. There is no real wind shear to impact formation. Weather it turns north west or north east after formation will decide where it hits. Also its effects when it turns north east and starts to dissipate over land

    Hopefully they are wrong and no one is negatively impacted by it.

    Like I said just something to watch. Worst case scenario.
     

    candcallen

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    Little Elm
    The weather channel and the National hurricane center said the hurricane hunters will be starting flights into that system today.
     

    candcallen

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    Little Elm
    Damn. Just what we don't need.
    Where's a blue norther when you need one?
    If it makes you feel better on of the hurricanes in the Atlantic is modeled to hit new England if it last that long.


    I get the part about the bluev norther and temps. Just bloviating.
     

    candcallen

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    Jul 23, 2011
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    Little Elm
    The 8am advisory on this. 90 percent chance of cyclone formation in 48 hours.......


    1. Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better
    organized this morning in association with a well-defined low
    pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
    Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for
    development and, if this recent development trend continues, a
    tropical depression or a tropical storm could form later today. The
    low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for
    the next day or so before moving slowly northward to northeastward
    on Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
    aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
     

    MacZC7

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    Damn. Just what we don't need.
    Where's a blue norther when you need one?
    We don’t get those until January or February these days...too much weather manipulation going on but a lot of that stopped before covid for some reason.
    A norther is what caused Sally to camp out and dump all that rain.
     

    F350-6

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    Current track shows it to spin around in the gulf it appears. Time to wait and see.
    230146_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
     

    candcallen

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    Little Elm
    It will eventually turn north and east no matter where it hits the coast. What's left will be interesting.

    A couple weather casters aren't buying the model cause of the fact it can easily explode due to the conditions.

    It will be an interesting weekend.
     
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