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Demand outweighs supplies - how long will this last?

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  • dapakattack

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    Apr 11, 2013
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    What you see now is the culmination of demand because it is close to a Presidential election and the "peaceful protests". If Biden wins, demand won't slow down...at least for ammo...for perhaps his full term. People will realize that they can get that gun they have been eyeing, but can't find any ammo to feed it. If Trump wins, demand will be high as long as the riots continue...I'd say at least a year from now things will start to settle down.
     

    TipBledsoe

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    It wasnt my intent to merely regurgitate thoroughly covered news.
    Just observing that the cause is a "perfect storm" of sorts; pandemic, rioting, and election year.
    I'm worried how long this will last because its also been reported that firearm and ammo manufacturers are not gearing up to meet the demand.
     

    studenygreg

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    Anyone notice Lysol wipes are hard to find?
    Funny you say this. My GF yesterday said that she will know things are back to normal when she can find lysol/Cloris wipes

    Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
     

    toddnjoyce

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    A lot of consumable shortages is due to decades of LEAN manufacturing and Just In Time supply chain management that’s optimized for a lower average demand.

    That shit doesn’t get fixed overnight and many manufacturers aren’t going to invest in entirely new factories necessary to cull shortages. The best one can hope for is 24/7 production, assuming supplies are sufficient to support that for the year or so it takes to recoup the cost of labor or O/T necessary.

    I’ll be surprised if we see 16cpr factory 9mm this time next year, even if Trump is reelected.
     

    ssgrock3

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    The wolf ammo will be back, they will crank out a billion steel case 9mm and 5.56 so we can go back to arguing I’m if it’s worth a hoot and newbs can ask if it will hurt their....whatever fun. I loved 135 case 9mm


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    oldag

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    It wasnt my intent to merely regurgitate thoroughly covered news.
    Just observing that the cause is a "perfect storm" of sorts; pandemic, rioting, and election year.
    I'm worried how long this will last because its also been reported that firearm and ammo manufacturers are not gearing up to meet the demand.
    Manufacturers ramped up during the last panic, only to have sales fall off.

    They won't do that again for a few years or so. Then they will forget.

    If Trump gets reelected and the riots subside, demand will ease up.
     

    BuzzinSATX

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    Dec 20, 2013
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    A lot of consumable shortages is due to decades of LEAN manufacturing and Just In Time supply chain management that’s optimized for a lower average demand.

    That shit doesn’t get fixed overnight and many manufacturers aren’t going to invest in entirely new factories necessary to cull shortages. The best one can hope for is 24/7 production, assuming supplies are sufficient to support that for the year or so it takes to recoup the cost of labor or O/T necessary.

    I’ll be surprised if we see 16cpr factory 9mm this time next year, even if Trump is reelected.

    I agree with all of this but I think this shortage is caused by much deeper issues. Last shortage was totally political. Not saying it wasn’t justified or real, but folks thought the Libs were absolutely coming for their guns...and they tried for sure.

    But the riots changed the argument and it’s not just a “I won’t be able to buy this gun soon” to “I hate guns but this freaking domestic violence stuff is way out of control and as much as I hate it, I NEED a gun now!”

    Add to that the COVID impact on world wide manufacturing,, particularly in Europe and the US, and the surge in demand was met with a reduction in capacity to supply.

    I don’t need ammo and could get by fine for a few years by cutting back and conserving. But I hate it when I cannot order it whenever I want.

    My personal “start buying again” price is $0.25 cpr for brass 9MM and $0.32 cpr for 5.56. I suspect if we get COVID under control, Trump wins and the riots start to be treated like they are domestic terrorists, we may see those prices by next Spring. Just a guess.

    Stay safe!
     

    V-Tach

    Watching While the Sheep Graze
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    Sep 30, 2012
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    We will see more mom and pop and other small gun stores close forever.....No guns to sell, no ammo to sell makes it extremely difficult to keep the doors open.....hell, even optics/RDS are hard to get.......

    AR15/rifles/parts glut is over too........folks are selling franken guns for premium prices.........
     
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