Coronavirus Epidemic

[kbaxter60]

Keep track of the facts, and don't fall for the media hysteria...

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/...aizV67DJavg#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Interesting data. Of course, you have to trust Johns Hopkins more than the hysterical media.

Also, it doesn't look like a 2.2% fatality rate on that one. More like 30% if you look at deaths/recovered, isn't it? I imagine they look at deaths/confirmed, but it seems premature to know that deaths won't surge.

 

[etmo]

That does not mean it did not come out of the bio-weapons lab. Is every virus inside a bio-weapons lab the one that could wipe out mankind or are some the tests that failed.

You are completely correct, but it still supports my point, that a simple, normal explanation is far more likely.
Could China be experimenting with new bioweapons? Sure, but it's unlikely. Could one have escaped? Sure, but it's unlikely. Could the one that escaped also be some unusual sort of bioweapon that isn't very dangerous by bioweapons standards? Sure, but it's unlikely. Etc.

Compound probability tells us that multiple unlikely things all needing to happen to produce a given result means that given result is really, really, really unlikely. As you said, doesn't mean it's impossible, definitely not arguing that point, just siding with what is overwhelmingly more likely.

what exactly is it that you see as fantastic theory in what I said in my previous post

Nothing taken by itself, again, the fantastic theory is that it requires a number of very unlikely things all to be true.

When you consider the extreme actions taken by the Chinese government to lasso this thing...

I'm not sure they're so extreme, at least, extreme by Chinese standards. Of course here in the USA we'd all flip out if Uncle Sam tried to quarantine Dallas or Houston, but is it extreme for mainland China?

Here's a novel contagion. It's new, it's kinda dangerous, it's embarrassing China internationally, and perhaps most importantly by ChiCom standards, the international community freaked out and so it's flat-out bad for business. To you and me, it might seem extremely expensive to quarantine so many and build a hospital by working 24/7, but can you or I evaluate the cost of not getting this thing under control ASAP, given the unprecedented (perhaps we should say, "extreme") international reaction?

The ChiCom government knows that cost, better than anyone. They've gotten a good taste of the cost back when SARS hit them and "resulted in public bans and reduced business for meat markets throughout southern China and Hong Kong" (says wikipedia) not to mention the H5N1 avian flu, which caused them (and many other governments) to kill billions of dollars in poultry and spend billions more on research (again, wikipedia) and knowing that cost, they realized that shutting down some cities and building a couple hospitals on the double would have a strong ROI.

 

[toddnjoyce]

Wuhan province has been essentially under lockdown for more than 3 weeks.

The virus has becomes symptomatic within 14 days. The lifespan of someone who is symptomatic is less than 14 days.

It either ends within two weeks, or China can’t police itself.

 

[SlimJim]

Lefty hogwash, aside from the fact that nothing in your link mentions anything about The US military attempting to infect native Americans. Only claims about the British that happen a decade before the Declaration of Independence was signed.
https://quod.lib.umich.edu/p/plag/5...ox-blankets-to-indians?rgn=main;view=fulltext

Global warming was the motivation in the post you replied to.



Yeah, China probably just wanted to look like ill prepared fools on the world stage. Especially after having their economy checked by new trade deals.



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Well it is just not communist governments that would attack their own citizens. So it happened a decade before the signing. That just means it was Americans that just weren't Americans yet. Kent State and as I already stated, FBI's Operation Carnivore, are examples and that isn't lefty hogwash.

Again, I didn't mention anything about Global Warming. You could have replied to the person that posted that but you didn't.

I don't understand your last sentence. Again, we don't know all the hows or whys about the spreading of this virus. It could be a lot of things and as I already stated, I wouldn't put too much trust in what media outlets are reporting.

 

[MTA]

No more bat soup

 

[Younggun]

Well it is just not communist governments that would attack their own citizens. So it happened a decade before the signing. That just means it was Americans that just weren't Americans yet.

The words your looking for are “British soldiers”.

Kent State and as I already stated,

State, not federal

If you wanted examples of injustices why not point out the camps full of Asian Americans during WW2, or Obama drone striking American citizens more recently? How about Waco or Ruby Ridge?

Of course, those still pale in comparison to any communist governments death toll on its best day.

FBI's Operation Carnivore, are examples and that isn't lefty hogwash.

That was a spying program. Not a murder program.

Again, I didn't mention anything about Global Warming. You could have replied to the person that posted that but you didn't.

Because that person seemed to be making the post sarcastically.

I don't understand your last sentence. Again, we don't know all the hows or whys about the spreading of this virus. It could be a lot of things and as I already stated, I wouldn't put too much trust in what media outlets are reporting.

Media trust isn’t required. The Chinese government doesn’t stand to gain anything by unleashing the virus in its own cities. If they wanted to reduce populations for some reason they would do so in a targeted manner. They already have enough info on their citizens to pick and choose who to kill, they already have concentration camps set up. And they have no problem arresting anyone for whatever crime they might decide to hit them with for whatever reason they choose. They can start picking up anyone who’s social credit score is below average tomorrow.

China purposefully releasing a virus with a fairly low death rate (for a weapon) in an attempt to reduce their own population while spending for knows how much to contain/control it makes absolutely no sense.



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[TxStetson]

The words your looking for are “British soldiers”.




State, not federal

If you wanted examples of injustices why not point out the camps full of Asian Americans during WW2, or Obama drone striking American citizens more recently? How about Waco or Ruby Ridge?

Of course, those still pale in comparison to any communist governments death toll on its best day.




That was a spying program. Not a murder program.





Because that person seemed to be making the post sarcastically.



Media trust isn’t required. The Chinese government doesn’t stand to gain anything by unleashing the virus in its own cities. If they wanted to reduce populations for some reason they would do so in a targeted manner. They already have enough info on their citizens to pick and choose who to kill, they already have concentration camps set up. And they have no problem arresting anyone for whatever crime they might decide to hit them with for whatever reason they choose. They can start picking up anyone who’s social credit score is below average tomorrow.

China purposefully releasing a virus with a fairly low death rate (for a weapon) in an attempt to reduce their own population while spending for knows how much to contain/control it makes absolutely no sense.



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You do realize you're trying to use logic to combat an internet conspiracy theory don't you?

 

[majormadmax]

 

[Younggun]

You do realize you're trying to use logic to combat an internet conspiracy theory don't you?

Damn it.




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[MTA]

View attachment 200877

 

[TheDan]

Could the one that escaped also be some unusual sort of bioweapon that isn't very dangerous by bioweapons standards?

Doesn't have to be a bio-weapon to have been manufactured for research.

 

[F350-6]

Wuhan province has been essentially under lockdown for more than 3 weeks.

The virus has becomes symptomatic within 14 days. The lifespan of someone who is symptomatic is less than 14 days.

It either ends within two weeks, or China can’t police itself.

I've read over 1 million folks left before the lockdown went into effect. That plus the virus spread doesn't work that way. If there's a million people locked up in the city and only 30k or 40k people have it, then there's still a lot of folks who haven't caught it yet. Since it can be spread before symptoms appear, it can keep going. Every day someone new catches the virus, the 14 days start over again assuming they stop going out as soon as they figure it out. And they're having to ship food and supplies in, so there's another path to the outside.

I read today it may be spreading through fecal matter. The article said something about diarrhea causing airborne contagions to spread through apartment blocks, but I don't know enough about how chinese apartment buildings are constructed to understand how that works. It did mention if that's true, then hospitals will act as a super carrier and really help spread it around inside their walls (and beyond when the workers go home for the day)

 

[Younggun]

Lots of info coming out from a variety of sources. Many of which aren’t all that reliable. Couple that with media outlets competing to get the views...and the best way to get views is through fear.


Let’s just say I’m very skeptical. We were all gonna catch Ebola not too long ago. I’m sure this isn’t something anyone wants to catch, but it’s spreading through China. A country known for cramming a lot of people in to tiny areas and not always having the citizens best interest in mind.

I did hear about people leaving before the lockdown went in to effect, but the numbers were around 100,000. I’ve heard nothing coming close to 1million.

Since the lockdown has been in place many of those who had the virus would have shown symptoms by now making it clear where they had gone. The spread of the virus doesn’t seem to show that effect. But I’m sure not an expert in the field. Just applying my own version of common sense and what would seem like a logical outcome.


I’m not all that concerned at the moment.


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[F350-6]

I'm not too concerned here either, but I would expect things to get,or already be, much worse in China. Too many folks in too close of quarters with a (reasonable) distrust of the government.

They discovered a bit late that SARS spread through fecal matter too. That's why I brought this up. And since we know how China builds everything else, I was just wondering what shortcuts they took in their apartment buildings that may be making things worse.

This is a new strand of coronavirus (not the coronavirus). So it's not like it's an unheard of thing. For me the interesting thing is watching how it spreads in developed vs undeveloped countries. If it spread as fast in every other country as it did in China, then I'd be worried.

 

[toddnjoyce]

This graph of the JHU data tells a very good story and is hinting at another one.

Orange dots are confirmed cases in China. It shows a somewhat linear blast off once a critical number was reached. Now, it appears the expansion in China is just a hair short of what its been. That’s a trend to follow.

The other trend is the yellow line; ROW cases confirmed. That’s not taking the same path as the orange, probably due the lower population densities pretty much everywhere else, combined with preventive measures such as quarantine of asymptomatic people who travelled in the affected area.

Or, the difference could be explained by shitty communist healthcare and generally worse health as a side effect of 70+ years of communist policies that result in people just being less healthy overall.

Or, genetic differences between the Chinese and everyone else.

 

[Big Green]

From what the news says we’ll all be infected tomorrow and dead the day after.

I heard CDC say today it is not a serious threat to the US.

So from full on panic on one side to not a bit of worry on the other.

Does anyone remember the CDCs posture concerning SARS, H1N1, etc? Again I recall news outlets being in a panic but don’t recall the .govs position.

 

[Hoji]

Definitely a theory floating around. Would a govt. Kill it's own people? Would we give poisoned blankets to injuns? I think it is much worse than the reports coming on.

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Make it a lot easier for public relations if the protests in Hong Kong stopped due to illness vs due to jack booted tank drivers.

 

[Hoji]

Well, we didn’t give poisoned blankets to “injuns”...

Technically it was the British that claimed to have done that during the French Indian War.

 

[Younggun]

Technically it was the British that claimed to have done that during the French Indian War.

He doesn’t like facts. They get in the way of his narrative.


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[SlimJim]

He doesn’t like facts. They get in the way of his narrative.


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Please, they were British that would later be Americans in N. America. Tomato, .

Besides you brought up other recent instances when the US harmed it's own citizens. I just used the tainted blankets because it was the first thing that came to my mind when typing a response.

See when folks consider different ways the virus could have initially spread and it differs with media reports, that is an internet conspiracy apparently. When paid govt. Employees do it, it is a foreign policy think tank.

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