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    oldag

    TGT Addict
    Rating - 100%
    7   0   0
    Feb 19, 2015
    17,540
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    toddnjoyce

    TGT Addict
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    4   0   0
    Sep 27, 2017
    19,318
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    Boerne
    The models were broken 10 minutes after release.

    Close. The models were irrelevant, because at release the virus already community spread. On 6 Feb, there was worldwide only one death outside of China attributed to beer flu.

    Depending on length of illness, it also puts the first know US infection about mid-January and that infection has no known contact tracing to China...that’s community spread, and lends support to anecdotal evidence this virus and its associated disease has been around much longer than originally thought.

    Following that line of thinking, the Stanford study makes a whole lot more sense.
     

    HKShooter65

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    Seems the virus was killing people in the US as early as Feb 6, according to CDC test results.

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea...D-19-death-was-57-year-old-Santa-15218813.php

    If true, then all the models and most of our knowledge about the disease caused by the virus has been turned upside down.


    I don't think that is true. Unneeded hyperbole.

    It just pointed out that a few people died of a flu-like illness for which there was no test.

    Don't fault docs who fail to immediately diagnose a disease that has never been seen on our continent that pretty effectively mimics a disease that is seen quite often.
     

    HKShooter65

    TGT Addict
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    1   0   0
    Close. The models were irrelevant, because at release the virus already community spread. On 6 Feb, there was worldwide only one death outside of China attributed to beer flu.

    Depending on length of illness, it also puts the first know US infection about mid-January and that infection has no known contact tracing to China...that’s community spread, and lends support to anecdotal evidence this virus and its associated disease has been around much longer than originally thought.

    Following that line of thinking, the Stanford study makes a whole lot more sense.

    Slightly longer.

    https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?branchLabel=aa&p=full

    Look carefully at that genomic epidemiology site.
    It contains a wealth of sophisticated information gleaned by researchers who RNA-sequence the virus that evolves rapidly.

    RNA replication is subject to random mutations without the inherent error-correcting mechanisms built into DNA replication.
     

    HKShooter65

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    Why don’t you just shut your whore mouth. Tissue samples saved from the deaths were tested by the CDC.

    Your charm eludes me.

    You thought I was disagreeing with your initial statement??
    I did not. You are precisely correct.

    I'm fully aware of the methodology that led to the CDC's release and have been aware of it since it was made public.

    It is your conclusion that is an error.

    The new information will be used to adjust databases like the one I just posted:
    https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?branchLabel=aa&p=full
    One of those dots will be altered.

    No two days have been identical when referring to the genomic and forensic
    epidemiology
     
    Last edited:

    kbaxter60

    "Gig 'Em!"
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Jan 23, 2019
    10,054
    96
    Pipe Creek
    I don't think that is true. Unneeded hyperbole.

    It just pointed out that a few people died of a flu-like illness for which there was no test.

    Don't fault docs who fail to immediately diagnose a disease that has never been seen on our continent that pretty effectively mimics a disease that is seen quite often.
    Starting to come across less like Troll Guy than Mr Damage Control Person now.
    Maybe you can get that on a few Death Certificates: 'A flu-like illness for which there was no test"
    It could be 2020's "Circumstances Beyond Our Control".

    *Make it go viral*
     

    DubiousDan

    Trump 2024
    Rating - 100%
    8   0   0
    May 22, 2010
    21,500
    96
    San Antonio
    Seems the virus was killing people in the US as early as Feb 6, according to CDC test results.

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea...D-19-death-was-57-year-old-Santa-15218813.php

    If true, then all the models and most of our knowledge about the disease caused by the virus has been turned upside down.

    My best friend had a sudden onset of a respiratory illness mid January that killed him in less than a week. It was a viral illness but not Flu A or B. He also has multiple comorbidities and declined intubation. Makes me wonder.
     

    HKShooter65

    TGT Addict
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    1   0   0
    Check this article:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ed-germany-build-virus-defences-idUSKCN21R1DB

    The science, being refined by the minute, is just incredible.

    Germany has traced their 1st COVID case to the moment an employee in a lunch room asked a coworker to pass the salt.

    It was in Stockdorf Germany, at Westabo, an auto parts supplier.
    The salt-shaker-passer was a Chinese woman who had just carried the virus from China and initiated, in that salty interaction, German COVID19 spread.

    Everything happens for a reason.
    We call that reason science.
     

    Vaquero

    Moving stuff to the gas prices thread.....
    Staff member
    Moderator
    Rating - 100%
    11   0   0
    Apr 4, 2011
    44,343
    96
    Dixie Land
    Let me imagine, for a moment, that our troll is posting.
    Yep. The hkwhatever.
    Last fall, it was a university professor with a hot tub and some property in Colorado. What's the story now?
    Probably a health care professional. Worked to the point of exhaustion.
    Bull shit.
     

    kbaxter60

    "Gig 'Em!"
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Jan 23, 2019
    10,054
    96
    Pipe Creek
    Was that not precisely correct???
    Maybe it was TECHNICALLY correct. Is it just another way to say 'we didn't have a Covid test yet. But, it was Covid'? I have grown extremely weary of all the games. 'Well, we didn't actually do the test. But they had some symptoms. Let's mark this one down as 'Covid'" I don't see "precision" in games like that. Only obfuscation and gamesmanship.
    The epidemiological pattern of spread will continue to be refined.
    No doubt. And perhaps the numbers will have to continue to be revised downward.
     

    candcallen

    Crotchety, Snarky, Truthful. You'll get over it.
    Emeritus - "Texas Proud"
    Rating - 100%
    2   0   0
    Jul 23, 2011
    21,350
    96
    Little Elm
    We call that reason science.

    I never understand the arrogance or scientists.

    Let me remind you science is a discipline full of irony and arrogant know it alls that is based completely on failure, being wrong, and being ridiculed by their peers.

    It boils down to touching a hot stove after your told not to because you will get burned. Then, in an effort to prove them wrong cause you're so arrogant you know they can't possibly be right, you touch the stove and blister your hand. Then you go around a parade like a peacock telling everyone a hot stove will burn you like you made the discovery yourself.


    Discovery is made thru failure, we all get that. It's the blind arrogance and refusal to acknowledge the fact you fail a dozen times before you accidentally get it right that destroys credibility.

    That is HK Shooter. An arrogant failure that hasn't been correct yet. Mixed with 50% chicken little.
     
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