Lynx Defense

Coronavirus Epidemic, Part 2

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  • MacZC7

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    Current death toll in Texas: 14,478 Current population of Texas: 29M
    Covid Rate of death = 14478/29000000 = .000499=.04% Seems like the odds are pretty good to open up the state.
    From: https://tamucc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/7b82e7fc0e2142cf9a07aa9f7ce5b87f
    How many of those 14,478 deaths were people with pre-existing conditions/comorbidities? If you use CDC’s 6% figure it’s a sliver of what you post!
    My aunt had health problems and got Covid last month and caused her to get pneumonia and they had to pull the plug on her yesterday. Her family has hereditary immune deficiency.
    Texas SOT
     

    JohnSo

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    How many of those 14,478 deaths were people with pre-existing conditions/comorbidities? If you use CDC’s 6% figure it’s a sliver of what you post!
    My aunt had health problems and got Covid last month and caused her to get pneumonia and they had to pull the plug on her yesterday. Her family has hereditary immune deficiency.
    I do not know, however, it seems when the report on a daily basis on local news the deaths, MOST of them are 70's plus with two or more comorbidities. So it seems like A LOT of them.
     

    benenglish

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    Lots of talk here about opening up. It's hard to believe that lockdowns have been going on for so long that there has been time for lawsuits to be initiated, depositions taken, hearings, and to get a ruling from a judge. It's not in Texas but it's a hopeful sign.

     

    MacZC7

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    I do not know, however, it seems when the report on a daily basis on local news the deaths, MOST of them are 70's plus with two or more comorbidities. So it seems like A LOT of them.
    No one is scared to drive but that’s one of the most deadly things we all do on a daily basis...
     

    MacZC7

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    Lots of talk here about opening up. It's hard to believe that lockdowns have been going on for so long that there has been time for lawsuits to be initiated, depositions taken, hearings, and to get a ruling from a judge. It's not in Texas but it's a hopeful sign.


    Class action lawsuits are in the works, believe me!
     

    rotor

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    Current death toll in Texas: 14,478 Current population of Texas: 29M
    Covid Rate of death = 14478/29000000 = .000499=.04% Seems like the odds are pretty good to open up the state.
    From: https://tamucc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/7b82e7fc0e2142cf9a07aa9f7ce5b87f
    Your math is right but what are you trying to calculate? The death rate for cv should be based on the number of people positive for cv, not the entire state population.
    The latest news is here and excuse me if I just don't understand any of these figures...
     

    MacZC7

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    Your math is right but what are you trying to calculate? The death rate for cv should be based on the number of people positive for cv, not the entire state population.
    The latest news is here and excuse me if I just don't understand any of these figures...
    How can you factor in positive tests when not every person has been tested and/or the tests and test processing facilities have been proven unreliable? A formula needs a stable variable. You use the data that is the most stable which is total population. That’s just common sense.
     

    toddnjoyce

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    So the king addressed us peons today. He took 12 full minutes to lecture the masses on his goodness, then took another 90 or seconds to drive home the message that we should be grateful his highness is allowing us to have slightly more freedom. The video below starts with the 90 second smarminess and then says everybody gets to go to 75%. Unless he doesn't want you to.
     

    rotor

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    How can you factor in positive tests when not every person has been tested and/or the tests have been proven unreliable? You use the data that is the most stable which is total population. That’s just common sense.
    I agree that unless you test everyone you can not get death rate. I was just pointing out that the rate calculated based on Texas population is meaningless too. The only thing that counts for death rate is the percentage of people infected with cv (proven positive) that die and die of cv, not some other condition such as heart disease. The number of people that are positive in Texas versus the state population can give a basis for calculating the infection rate but that also requires everyone being tested. I think that we are facing a big unknown with the actual death rate from cv. When cities have to have refrigerated trucks though because the morgue is full that is a worrisome thought.
    We will all be glad when this is over but I hope we are prepared as there will be another one someday.
     

    Axxe55

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    Unless you know the estimated number, (or exact number, if available,) the death rate number is meaningless. You can't calculate a death rate based on total population because that would be a false representation of the true death toll of that disease.
     

    oldag

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    Your math is right but what are you trying to calculate? The death rate for cv should be based on the number of people positive for cv, not the entire state population.
    The latest news is here and excuse me if I just don't understand any of these figures...

    A true mortality rate is difficult due to the data.
    1. The number of deaths is GREATLY exaggerated.
    2. The number of infections is unknown, because so many people have no ill effects and are never tested.

    The best estimate is probably the cruise ship. No one allowed on, no allowed off. Everyone exposed. 3600 people, 7 deaths. 0.19%, on par with the flu even though treatment really had not been well developed at that time.
     

    oldag

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    So the king addressed us peons today. He took 12 full minutes to lecture the masses on his goodness, then took another 90 or seconds to drive home the message that we should be grateful his highness is allowing us to have slightly more freedom. The video below starts with the 90 second smarminess and then says everybody gets to go to 75%. Unless he doesn't want you to.

    Is the stupid mask order lifted?
     

    Dougw1515

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    Your math is right but what are you trying to calculate? The death rate for cv should be based on the number of people positive for cv, not the entire state population.
    The latest news is here and excuse me if I just don't understand any of these figures...
    If you're trying to determine the percentage of covid deaths relative to the population - you use population numbers. If you're trying to determine the percentage of covid deaths vs the number of covid cases - yeah well... good luck with that futile exercise. Even the CD's/population it so skewed it makes picking the winning lottery number seem easy.
     

    Axxe55

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    Lost in East Texas Elhart Texas
    A true mortality rate is difficult due to the data.
    1. The number of deaths is GREATLY exaggerated.
    2. The number of infections is unknown, because so many people have no ill effects and are never tested.

    The best estimate is probably the cruise ship. No one allowed on, no allowed off. Everyone exposed. 3600 people, 7 deaths. 0.19%, on par with the flu even though treatment really had not been well developed at that time.

    That is why so far the death rate is very misleading. Incorrect data as to actual deaths from CV19 has been reported. And no known number of how many people have been infected. And even those shown to be positive, those numbers have been manipulated as well. So the numbers are totally screwed up and false IMO.
     

    JohnSo

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    Sep 16, 2020
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    Corpus Christi, Tx
    How can you factor in positive tests when not every person has been tested and/or the tests and test processing facilities have been proven unreliable? A formula needs a stable variable. You use the data that is the most stable which is total population. That’s just common sense.
    And building off of this comment, it's also impossible to put a number on how many people have had it but were never tested which could be quite large. Lot's of stories about people who believe they've had it, test positive for antibodies but never showed symptoms (asymptomatic). To further muddy the waters the number of people who actually died of COVID verses those that died of other causes who happened to have covid at the same time is not available as it isn't tracked that way. There is so much garbage in the reporting of covid positive cases (multiple reportings of the same individual etc.) that the numbers we do have are not really credible. So, using population was a simplifying assumption which I tried to anchor the analysis to SOMETHING. The deaths numbers are suspect for the reasons previously stated but I thought using the TOTAL deaths was a simplifying assumption as well. Realizing that the year isn't over yet the .04% is a bit underreporting the actual, but considering the problems in all the other data sets, I don't believe it's crazy.
     
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