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    F350-6

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    As toddnjoyce confirmed, there was one person quarantined at Lackland that has now tested positve and been hospitalized for 2019-nCoV.

    I work on base and get details that I cannot share on here, and despite the panic of the ignorant masses on social media, I can attest that the proper procedures were followed to ensure the individual was safely and securely transported to an off-base facility prepared to deal with the disease.

    So fill us in on a little detail. Does the 14 day period for the rest of the folks start over now? Did they share any common areas where the virus may have been present and the 14 days should start after the last contact with the common areas?

    Lastly, tell us about the toilet situation. I've read that they now believe it can be transmitted via the fecal route. There was a case in china where someone on the third floor of a big apartment complex (who had modified their toilet plumbing and disconnected the vent pipe) caught the virus that was somehow matched to someone on something like the 17th floor.

    So if it's spread through sewer vents, how big is the building these folks are quarantined in? When the toilet vent pipe exits through the roof and those fecal matter virus particles are floating out of the pipe, where do they go and who else might get infected? (although I can see how a high rise vent that's been disconnected on the 3rd floor will have more air output than one at roof level)
     

    majormadmax

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    So fill us in on a little detail. Does the 14 day period for the rest of the folks start over now? Did they share any common areas where the virus may have been present and the 14 days should start after the last contact with the common areas?

    Lastly, tell us about the toilet situation. I've read that they now believe it can be transmitted via the fecal route. There was a case in china where someone on the third floor of a big apartment complex (who had modified their toilet plumbing and disconnected the vent pipe) caught the virus that was somehow matched to someone on something like the 17th floor.

    So if it's spread through sewer vents, how big is the building these folks are quarantined in? When the toilet vent pipe exits through the roof and those fecal matter virus particles are floating out of the pipe, where do they go and who else might get infected? (although I can see how a high rise vent that's been disconnected on the 3rd floor will have more air output than one at roof level)

    From what I've read and understand, those under quarantine are isolated from each other so those who have not had contact with the infected person will continue under observation for the remainder of their internment.

    Please don't compare the plumbing or sanitation conditions on a USAF base with that in China. 2019-nCoV is not an airborne disease, thus the chances of getting it through a modern HVAC or even a toilet is pretty much nil unless an infected person has had direct contact with such apparatus in the other person's room.

    Again, a lot of useful info here...

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
     

    toddnjoyce

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    ...So if it's spread through sewer vents...

    It’s not, at least to my knowledge. A carrier needs to be within coughing/sneezing distance in most sanitary conditions to transmit to another human.

    As a comparison, the Diamond Princess cruise ship that’s been floating around Japan is the second largest concentration of people confirmed with the virus. There’s 355 confirmed cases onboard as of today, so I’d guess that’s somewhere around 15% of the passengers infected. Zero deaths have occurred, but none have been declared as ‘recovered’ yet, whatever ‘recovered’ means.

    Those that have tested positive are being removed to first-world quarantined medical care in Japan as soon as the results are known. Watching this population should be informative.
     

    CyberWolf

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    ...A carrier needs to be within coughing/sneezing distance in most sanitary conditions to transmit to another human.

    ^With the caveats that good/vetted information has been so diluted with crap, (and my understanding could very well be off-mark), from what I've read, that may not be accurate in this case due to its aerosolized nature.


    Saw the article linked below posted elsewhere earlier today, and while I haven't dug up any real background info for either site or author, this looks to be some very interesting information and early suppositions...

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/

    *note: In most instances, I wouldn't repost stuff like that; However, based on linguistic form and information which seems to jive with what I remember from back when this stuff held interest for me (though we're talking decades, not years), my initial gut-call says the article is legit and author knows what he's talking about.

    Figured this might be of interest to some...
     
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    TheDan

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    Oh, on another note - did ya'll see that Dean Koontz wrote a book about this in 1981? In the book, the virus originates in Chinese bio weapons labs - in Woohan! He called the virus Woohan 400. So eerily close to reality.
    The Simpsons predict all...
    tenor.gif
     

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    toddnjoyce

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    ^With the caveats that good/vetted information has been so diluted with crap, (and my understanding could very well be off-mark), from what I've read, that may not be accurate in this case due to its aerosolized nature.


    Saw the article linked below posted elsewhere earlier today, and while I haven't dug up any real background info for either site or author, this looks to be some very interesting information and early suppositions...

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/

    *note: In most instances, I wouldn't repost stuff like that; However, based on linguistic form and information which seems to jive with what I remember from back when this stuff held interest for me (though we're talking decades, not years), my initial gut-call says the article is legit and author knows what he's talking about.

    Figured this might be of interest to some...

    No worries. The article posted sources WSJ, which is the only media subscription I have, both print and digital.

    I’m following what’s on there and well as the CDC page which I trust for public health knowledge more than anything else.

    I also recognize that there’s a lot of unknowns...such as intermediate transfer from contaminated surfaces. One way to mitigate that is to use hand sanitizer after touching anyone/anything that could be contaminated. Other things,like staying home when your sick, help to limit transmission.

    Those are things most Americans know, because it’s been ingrained in us through public health campaigns.

    Those type of efforts don’t exist in China. Partly due to government control, and partly due to a culture that scoffs scientific research and medically sound knowledge and, instead relies on beliefs that ground up unicorn balls made into a tea with Easter bunny piss will cure what ails you.

    Put 11M people like that in tight confines and this is the result. Take those people to first world countries and yeah, disease spreads, but not at the pace or with the same mortality as it did.
     

    Kar98

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    ...
    Oh, on another note - did ya'll see that Dean Koontz wrote a book about this in 1981? In the book, the virus originates in Chinese bio weapons labs - in Woohan! He called the virus Woohan 400. So eerily close to reality.

    I did not but I went and downloaded the book and started reading it. Right in the first couple of chapters, the main character retrieves her pistol and "flicks the two safety catches off."

    Sigh.
     

    Kar98

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    No worries. The article posted sources WSJ, which is the only media subscription I have, both print and digital.

    I’m following what’s on there and well as the CDC page which I trust for public health knowledge more than anything else.

    I also recognize that there’s a lot of unknowns...such as intermediate transfer from contaminated surfaces. One way to mitigate that is to use hand sanitizer after touching anyone/anything that could be contaminated. Other things,like staying home when your sick, help to limit transmission.

    Those are things most Americans know, because it’s been ingrained in us through public health campaigns.

    Those type of efforts don’t exist in China. Partly due to government control, and partly due to a culture that scoffs scientific research and medically sound knowledge and, instead relies on beliefs that ground up unicorn balls made into a tea with Easter bunny piss will cure what ails you.

    Put 11M people like that in tight confines and this is the result. Take those people to first world countries and yeah, disease spreads, but not at the pace or with the same mortality as it did.

    It's a good thing there are no anti vaxxers and believers in essential oils, homeopathy and healing crystals anywhere in the Western world.
     

    Younggun

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    It's a good thing there are no anti vaxxers and believers in essential oils, homeopathy and healing crystals anywhere in the Western world.

    Those people usually go to real doctors as soon as they get sick. Very few will actually stick with their crackpot medicines when their life is on the line.

    Since their isn’t a vaccine for this, the antivaxers aren’t really any different than everyone else and a good number, maybe the majority, only take issue with vaccines and are pretty much on board with most other modern medicine.




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    Kar98

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    I did not but I went and downloaded the book and started reading it. Right in the first couple of chapters, the main character retrieves her pistol and "flicks the two safety catches off."

    Sigh.

    So I finished the book, and here are the pages talking about the virus. Pretty much the exact opposite of Covid19:
     

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    F350-6

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    From what I've read and understand, those under quarantine are isolated from each other so those who have not had contact with the infected person will continue under observation for the remainder of their internment.

    The articles I've read have said, mostly. One even implied there were common areas they would all pass through or congregate in. If the virus is able to live on a surface for a particular amount of time, or if they occasionally spent time with one another, that's the reason I asked.

    Please don't compare the plumbing or sanitation conditions on a USAF base with that in China. 2019-nCoV is not an airborne disease, thus the chances of getting it through a modern HVAC or even a toilet is pretty much nil unless an infected person has had direct contact with such apparatus in the other person's room.

    I'm not. I was curios about their plumbing conditions. I read an article with a photo of the plumbing in question. They do things different there, but use the same materials. The vent pipe there was disconnected inside the living space. Ours are hidden inside the walls. But both of them, (even on the USAF base) vent out through the roof of the building.

    Do a quick google search and you'll see the scientific community has been discussing the likelihood that this also spreads via the fecal route for a week or so now. Nothing I've seen so far indicates how far it can spread like this, but if it does move this way, what happens when it floats out through the vent pipe in the roof of the USAF building (or any other building for that matter)?

    It’s not, at least to my knowledge. A carrier needs to be within coughing/sneezing distance in most sanitary conditions to transmit to another human.

    As a comparison, the Diamond Princess cruise ship that’s been floating around Japan is the second largest concentration of people confirmed with the virus. There’s 355 confirmed cases onboard as of today, so I’d guess that’s somewhere around 15% of the passengers infected. Zero deaths have occurred, but none have been declared as ‘recovered’ yet, whatever ‘recovered’ means.

    Those that have tested positive are being removed to first-world quarantined medical care in Japan as soon as the results are known. Watching this population should be informative.

    From what I've read their quarantine seems a bit more restrictive. Confined to their rooms and not supposed to get within 15' of anyone else on another balcony. Usually a bug gets loose on a ship and a lot of folks get sick, but they seem to have locked things down pretty tight here.

    Again, I'm not preaching doomsday here. 60k folks in a town of 11 million is still a very small percentage. The death toll is a tiny percentage too. But I do find it very interesting to watch what the official recommendations are on how to protect yourself vs. how the virus actually spreads.

    The initial "official" response was, you don't need a surgical mask, just wash your hands.
     

    F350-6

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    Recent article about how little the CDC knows about this virus:
    https://dcdirtylaundry.com/analysis...appening-in-the-usa-will-hawaii-be-the-first/
    I am not sure what an "outbreak" is, but I would guess it means "become infected domestically".

    That says they expect it to become seasonal like the flu. This is just one type of coronavirus, many of which have been around for a long, long time. They aren't a constant threat to us each year. Neither is SARS, MERS, Birf Flu, etc.

    Do I expect cases in the US to spread? Yes. But by all accounts, it seems less contagious than the measles. And we've had plenty of measles outbreaks the last couple of years.
     

    toddnjoyce

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    ...Do a quick google search and you'll see the scientific community has been discussing the likelihood that this also spreads via the fecal route for a week or so now...

    I hear you. Most fecal transmissible diseases I’m aware of are fecal-oral, though flushing a toilet can generate bio-aerosols. Simply closing the lid is very effective at reducing that risk.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4692156/

    As for escaping via the vent, I just don’t know that much about the hydraulic action of sewage. This experiment suggests if the P- or U-traps are empty, then it can occur.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5302810/#!po=1.13636
     

    HKShooter65

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    T......60k folks in a town of 11 million is still a very small percentage. The death toll is a tiny percentage too. ....

    The initial "official" response was, you don't need a surgical mask, just wash your hands......

    Were we so fortunate!

    Influenza virus kills about 1 out of 6,500 infected.
    COVID-19 Coronavirus, in china, kills 1 out of 40.

    A routine surgical mask is mostly placebo. Relatively ineffectual.
    Only 10-20% of each breath passes through the mask.
    Most of the volume of your breath follows the lower-resistance path around the fiber barrier.
     

    majormadmax

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    COVID-19 has a 2.5% mortality.
    Simply spread airway to airway like cold or flu.
    Like in line at HEB.

    Just does nasty things to one's lungs.

    Yikes.
    Uncontainable in all likelihood.

    Not according to the CDC, but don't let the facts get in the way of a good unnecessary panic and/or hysteria!
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html

    The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.
    • Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)
    • Via respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
    • These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.
    It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

    And given all the efforts in the US by quarantining all those coming from the affected areas has resulted in zero cross-contamination or deaths in this country so far, it is highly "containable."

    If anything, US agencies should be applauded for their efforts to pro-actively address this epidemic so far!
     

    Younggun

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    Not according to the CDC, but don't let the facts get in the way of a good unnecessary panic and/or hysteria!


    And given all the efforts in the US by quarantining all those coming from the affected areas has resulted in zero cross-contamination or deaths in this country so far, it is highly "containable."

    If anything, US agencies should be applauded for their efforts to pro-actively address this epidemic so far!

    You’re replying to the same person that referred to AOC as “a bright young woman”.

    Facts obviously aren’t that important.


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    F350-6

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    ....
    As for escaping via the vent, I just don’t know that much about the hydraulic action of sewage. This experiment suggests if the P- or U-traps are empty, then it can occur.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5302810/#!po=1.13636

    That study is in regards to transmission to other households via the sewer system, which can happen with empty P traps. The sewer vent going up through the roof vents to the atmosphere and does not contain a P or U trap. So if it can spread this way, it goes up above the roof and either gets carried by the wind or settles on the roof. Luckily roof and surrounding parking lots typically gain a good bit of heat from solar radiation, so that can help to shorten the life of anything that comes out, but I'm no expert on viruses. That's why I'm asking.

    Were we so fortunate!

    Influenza virus kills about 1 out of 6,500 infected.
    COVID-19 Coronavirus, in china, kills 1 out of 40.

    A routine surgical mask is mostly placebo. Relatively ineffectual.
    Only 10-20% of each breath passes through the mask.
    Most of the volume of your breath follows the lower-resistance path around the fiber barrier.

    So I can get a 20% lower chance of catching the disease, plus it helps tremendously if someone sneezes or coughs in your direction in close proximity.

    Heck, the flu shot only reduces the chance of getting the flu by 50% - 60%, but I still get one of those every year. So a surgical mask is a bit less than half as effective as a flu shot. 20% reduction in a 1 in 40 death rate sounds like it's worth the chance to me. If I lived in Wuhan, I'd be wearing one now.
     
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