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Does R. v W. decision have potential to push Texas Blue?

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  • Rock Torrey

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    I read once that native Texans supported Beto over Cruz in the Senate Election. What carried Cruz to victory was a greater number of "imports" in Texas that supported Cruz.

    Anecdotally that is absolutely not true!

    Austin and the surrounding area had over 300 people a day moving into the area, and they have changed where I live from a very conservative county to a very liberal one. Most are Californians (house rich from real estate sales in CA) that have bid up houses to the point that locals can no longer afford rents going up 50%+ a year.
     

    Jase1125

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    Anecdotally that is absolutely not true!

    Austin and the surrounding area had over 300 people a day moving into the area, and they have changed where I live from a very conservative county to a very liberal one. Most are Californians (house rich from real estate sales in CA) that have bid up houses to the point that locals can no longer afford rents going up 50%+ a year.
    Texas is much bigger than Austin :)


    "A CNN exit poll showed that O'Rourke beat Cruz among native Texans, 51 percent to 48 percent. In contrast, 57 percent of people who had moved to Texas said they voted for Cruz, compared to 42 percent who voted for O'Rourke."

    It is CNN, so it is completely reasonable to not believe them.
     

    toddnjoyce

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    Texas is much bigger than Austin :)

    "A CNN exit poll showed that O'Rourke beat Cruz among native Texans, 51 percent to 48 percent. In contrast, 57 percent of people who had moved to Texas said they voted for Cruz, compared to 42 percent who voted for O'Rourke."

    It is CNN, so it is completely reasonable to not believe them.

    That poll has been discussed ad-fucking-nauseam around here. If you know anything about respondency biases, then you understand taking something with a grain of salt.

    But you’re probably another one of those Californicators saving us from ourselves again.
     

    Rock Torrey

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    Most Californians are moving to Austin, Dallas, and Houston. I don't have facts to back it up, but I would be really surprised if it were not similar to the Austin demographics.

    It can be clearly shown that almost all of Beto's money (between 80 and 90%) in his Senatorial campaign came from out of state, mostly from NY City and CA (especially Hollywood) and was more of an anti-Cruz than pro-Beto sentiment. The odds makers had him beating Cornyn if he had run against him, but his ego was too big, and he decided to run for the Presidency instead
    .
    I also don't understand how you can run without using your legal name on the ballot. I don't care if he changes his name to Beto, but until then he should not be able to have it on the ballot.
     

    Jase1125

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    That poll has been discussed ad-fucking-nauseam around here. If you know anything about respondency biases, then you understand taking something with a grain of salt.

    But you’re probably another one of those Californicators saving us from ourselves again.
    Excuse the f u c k out of me for not knowing it was discussed ad nauseam. No need to be an asshole in your response. Did you not read I said it was CNN so could obviously be wrong?

    No I am not from California, but right across the Texas line in Louisiana. I have been in Texas for 25 years. Texas is a fantastic place and has my conservative values and are generally friendly people. Too bad there are homegrown assholes that make incorrect assumptions too.
     

    Jase1125

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    Most Californians are moving to Austin, Dallas, and Houston. I don't have facts to back it up, but I would be really surprised if it were not similar to the Austin demographics.

    It can be clearly shown that almost all of Beto's money (between 80 and 90%) in his Senatorial campaign came from out of state, mostly from NY City and CA (especially Hollywood) and was more of an anti-Cruz than pro-Beto sentiment. The odds makers had him beating Cornyn if he had run against him, but his ego was too big, and he decided to run for the Presidency instead
    .
    I also don't understand how you can run without using your legal name on the ballot. I don't care if he changes his name to Beto, but until then he should not be able to have it on the ballot.

    Given that California is heavily in Tech, I bet most move to Austin first because of Tech there and Dallas second. I doubt many move to Houston given the industry there. I bet you are correct that votes Cruz lost were middle-of-the-road types that just voted against him and not for Beto. A ton of money from outside the state went to Beto. Lots of Hollywood types funding democrats. Same thing happened in Georgia.

    My earlier statement is really around the idea that there is a slow separation of Red/Blue. Dems will go to blue states and republicans will got to red states. We really do live in two different countries in my view. I have nothing in common with democrats.
     

    toddnjoyce

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    Excuse the f u c k out of me for not knowing it was discussed ad nauseam. No need to be an asshole in your response. Did you not read I said it was CNN so could obviously be wrong?

    No I am not from California, but right across the Texas line in Louisiana. I have been in Texas for 25 years. Texas is a fantastic place and has my conservative values and are generally friendly people. Too bad there are homegrown assholes that make incorrect assumptions too.

    I ain’t the one that brought four year old information as evidence supporting an accusation that native Texans are most likely to vote communist.

    5th gen (of 6) native.
     

    Jase1125

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    I ain’t the one that brought four year old information as evidence supporting an accusation that native Texans are most likely to vote communist.

    5th gen (of 6) native.
    I just mentioned something I read prior and where I read it. I even mentioned it might be inaccurate. Forgive me for not doing in-depth research to validate it's claim. Other than bitching, what evidence do you have to dispute it other than anecdotal? I am not saying you are wrong, but hold yourself to your own damn standard. I do know from other Texas-focused boards that there is a large number of left-leaning people here and they are native. DFW, Austin, etc. produce a lot of leftists.
     
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    Jase1125

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    I think this is "myth" perpetrated by transplants to Texas, to say. "Look, we saved y'all from Beto!"

    I seriously doubt there is any concrete, or factual proof that supports that assertion that transplants voted for for Cruz than native Texans.
    I don't know personally. However, almost every import I meet are generally right-leaning (middle or right). I am in north DFW which leans conservative so that could just be where I am at geographically. I know Austin is a Tech hub so they are surely getting lots of lefties. I could make the argument both ways but have no proof one way or the other. Whatever the reason, thank God Beto didn't get elected. Native or imported, I appreciate everyone that voted for Cruz.
     

    toddnjoyce

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    [QUOTE="Jase1125, post: 2625249, member: 40439"…Other than bitching, what evidence do you have to dispute it other than anecdotal?…[/QUOTE]
    A couple of degrees worth of political science and a several thousand page long thread in here.

    But since you asked, beto outspent Cruz 2:1 in what was then the most expensive Senate race in all American history. If you look at Beto’s FEC fundraising data, you see the vast majority of it was raised outside the state of Texas. The DNC made that race one of their top 3 seats to flip in 2018 so they poured tons of resources (not just money) into winning that race and he still lost by nearly a quarter million votes even though Cruz effectively did not campaign in any way, shape, form, or fashion until September. The data exists and it’s covered (with sources) in that thread I mentioned.

    Exit polls, like primaries, attract the *most* active of voters. There’s a ton of research around which voting locations should be polled. If the story to be told is mobilizing first time voters (as beto’s was) then polling locations will lean towards locations near colleges/universities as those folks invariably make up the lion’s share of first time voters. The other thing about exit polls is some are designed to be predictive, others are designed to look backwards and dissect what actually happened. Most media outlets use predictive polls as they’re trying to call a race. The problem is predictive polls tend to have biases built into the questions asked. Do you consider yourself politically active is a favorite question. Ask that question of a college student that just voted for the first time and they’ll say yes, because it’s all they know, despite never having donated, voted in a primary, joined Young Republicans, etc.

    In some instances, the data collected along with the answers themselves allows end users of the data to self-select certain demographic indicators. Things like sex/gender, educational attainment (one of the big ones is some college vs a bachelors), race, age and zip code are very, very predictive of certain outcomes. For example, as a gross indicator, college educated white females as a demographic group tend to solidly democrat voters the younger they are and the closer to a campus zipcode they vote at.

    Then, look at domestic immigration trends. Since 2003, California has lead the charge when it comes to domestic inflows to Texas. Look at where they end up…four of the five major metro data (Austin, DFW, Houston, and lately San Antonio have tons of data supporting this). Overlay voting habits and watch the colors change over time. It’s an interesting exercise. Then put some household sizing data on top of that. As the immigration increases, the size of the household is generally larger as it’s not usually one person moving, but a family with kids, whereas the locals have to get married, then have a kid. The funny thing about those kids is that they don’t think of state identity the way some us do. And pollers know that, so they can design questions to elicit a certain response, such as generically asking if someone was born here vs asking what state were you born here, then extrapolating a response.

    Finally, understand every single thing major media outlets release is designed to generate a profit. That business works by targeting a specific audience. How do you entice your target audience to support your business…produce information that is self-affirming.
     

    Jase1125

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    [QUOTE="Jase1125, post: 2625249, member: 40439"…Other than bitching, what evidence do you have to dispute it other than anecdotal?…
    A couple of degrees worth of political science and a several thousand page long thread in here.

    But since you asked, beto outspent Cruz 2:1 in what was then the most expensive Senate race in all American history. If you look at Beto’s FEC fundraising data, you see the vast majority of it was raised outside the state of Texas. The DNC made that race one of their top 3 seats to flip in 2018 so they poured tons of resources (not just money) into winning that race and he still lost by nearly a quarter million votes even though Cruz effectively did not campaign in any way, shape, form, or fashion until September. The data exists and it’s covered (with sources) in that thread I mentioned.

    Exit polls, like primaries, attract the *most* active of voters. There’s a ton of research around which voting locations should be polled. If the story to be told is mobilizing first time voters (as beto’s was) then polling locations will lean towards locations near colleges/universities as those folks invariably make up the lion’s share of first time voters. The other thing about exit polls is some are designed to be predictive, others are designed to look backwards and dissect what actually happened. Most media outlets use predictive polls as they’re trying to call a race. The problem is predictive polls tend to have biases built into the questions asked. Do you consider yourself politically active is a favorite question. Ask that question of a college student that just voted for the first time and they’ll say yes, because it’s all they know, despite never having donated, voted in a primary, joined Young Republicans, etc.

    In some instances, the data collected along with the answers themselves allows end users of the data to self-select certain demographic indicators. Things like sex/gender, educational attainment (one of the big ones is some college vs a bachelors), race, age and zip code are very, very predictive of certain outcomes. For example, as a gross indicator, college educated white females as a demographic group tend to solidly democrat voters the younger they are and the closer to a campus zipcode they vote at.

    Then, look at domestic immigration trends. Since 2003, California has lead the charge when it comes to domestic inflows to Texas. Look at where they end up…four of the five major metro data (Austin, DFW, Houston, and lately San Antonio have tons of data supporting this). Overlay voting habits and watch the colors change over time. It’s an interesting exercise. Then put some household sizing data on top of that. As the immigration increases, the size of the household is generally larger as it’s not usually one person moving, but a family with kids, whereas the locals have to get married, then have a kid. The funny thing about those kids is that they don’t think of state identity the way some us do. And pollers know that, so they can design questions to elicit a certain response, such as generically asking if someone was born here vs asking what state were you born here, then extrapolating a response.

    Finally, understand every single thing major media outlets release is designed to generate a profit. That business works by targeting a specific audience. How do you entice your target audience to support your business…produce information that is self-affirming.
    [/QUOTE]

    Great information. Thank you. I just hope more people are red-pilled and reject the extreme left. There really isn’t much of a middle anymore. You are either red or crazy. My opinion anyway.
     

    Sasquatch

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    Because, I mean, Cornyn is such a winner.

    To be fair, the "R" says "red" but in reality, Coryn is just another dem in disguise. Fucker needs primaried or vigorously encouraged to retire and not run again, at least in Texas. He could move to New York or California and run there.
     
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